Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 052247
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
547 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 316 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Low level moisture continues to slowly increase, and along with it
have come a smattering of airmass thunderstorms. Shear is rather
weak, as a result, this activity has been more "pulse" in nature.
With instability more on the marginal side, the intensity of this
activity has been tempered quite a bit, with only a few lightning
strikes from time to time. This isolated to widely scattered
activity will continue into the early evening hours, with the
better coverage over western/northern portions of the outlook
area.

A break in the action is expected from the middle of this evening
into the overnight hours. More showers and storms will be
expanding across KS/OK during this time, gradually edging eastward
into extreme southeastern KS and far western MO toward daybreak
Wednesday.

Temperatures will remain mild for the time of year, near
persistence lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

The upper level trough and associated surface low over the plains
will slowly move towards the region and begin to impact eastern
Kansas and western Missouri by Wednesday morning.

Strong southerly flow as a result of the western trough and
eastern high pressure will bring ample Gulf moisture into the
region over the next few days. This will bring multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms to the region from Wednesday through the
coming weekend.

The storm system that will bring rain to the region tomorrow will
slowly lift into the northern plains through Thursday morning as
another upper low digs across the west coast, keeping the region
under southwesterly flow aloft. This will keep the Gulf of
Mexico open through the remainder of the week with several
shortwaves and impulses taking advantage of the moisture. The
good thing is that there are no signals at this time for any
significant severe weather through the period. There will be good
instability and shear associated with the impulses and waves, but
the air mass will resemble more of a summer like air mass.

The primary thing we will need to watch will be the potential for
flooding across the Ozarks. The ample moisture noted already will
bring the potential for heavy rainfall at time and multiple rounds
of rain across the region. the region will potentially see from
2-4" of rain through the period from Wednesday though Sunday, but
some areas may see a bit more and will need to be monitored closely.

The upper low will finally make its way across the plains and
through the region on Monday. High pressure and an upper level
ridge will then replace the weather makers for the region for
most of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 544 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Scattered afternoon convection has shifted north of or remains
west of the terminal forecast points early this evening and am
expecting this to continue through the evening. Additional
convection will be possible overnight...mainly towards morning at
the JLN terminal and then on Wednesday at SGF/BBG as a first in a
series of upper level waves pushes into the area. Expecting VFR
conditions through the period, although will not rule out some
MVFR conditions during any convective precipitation.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg





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