Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 230431
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1131 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

...06z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

A cool Canadian surface high was in the process of filtering into
the Ozarks today and will continue the process as we head into
the overnight hours. Temperatures this afternoon had only warmed
into the 50s across the region with little additional warming
expected into this evening despite the sunny skies.

As the surface high moves nearly overhead tonight, light winds
and cool temperatures will impact the area. Most locations will
see morning lows in the upper 30s to middle 40S, with the exception
of central Missouri. High pressure will move nearly right over the
top of the area with morning lows falling into the middle 30s. An
isolated reading of 32 to 33 degrees would even be possible. There
is the potential for some mid to high cloud cover to move over the
region through most of the overnight hours as noted on the 700mb
RH plots. however, the best areas for clouds will be south of the
area where temperatures will be coolest. Even if the clouds were
to move over central Missouri, the clouds will likely be scattered
in nature and still allow for patchy frost to form.

As a result, a Frost Advisory has been issued for the 4 to 8 AM
period Thursday morning for central Missouri.

Temperatures Thursday will then climb into the lower to middle
60s for tomorrow afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

A broad upper level ridge will move across the Plains Thursday
into Thursday night and push the cool Canadian high east of the
region. This will allow moisture to return from the Gulf region in
earnest as strong southerly winds bring warmer temperatures and
more moisture into the Ozarks.

Models are in good agreement with developing showers and
thunderstorms along an initially isentropic surface and spreading
east across the region early Friday morning through the day on
Friday as a warm front lift north through the region.

An upper level trough and associated surface low will approach the
region Friday night into Saturday morning. Instability in the warm
sector along with shear as the storm system moves into and through
the region during the evening and overnight Friday into Saturday
will be ample to allow for strong to isolated severe
thunderstorms. However there will be some capping limitation as
the upper trough has a more positive tilt to it. This will produce
generally southwesterly surface winds which are not conducive to
allowing for widespread severe weather. However, there is the
potential for a squall line to develop with high winds and hail
the primary concern as this point.

Generally dry conditions are then expected for the day Saturday
and Sunday, though a few wrap around showers may occur Saturday
afternoon as the storm system final moves east of the Ozarks.

An upper level ridge will then slide over the region for Sunday
into early Monday as another storm system drops into the
Southwestern CONUS. Models remain different on this system with the
ECMWF and Canadian dropping it mostly south of the Ozarks through
mid week with the GFS moving it across the region. Will continue
to watch this over the next few models runs. The primary thin to
not for next week though will be the deep upper level trough over
the eastern half of the country. This will bring a rather cold air
mass into the region for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

There are no aviation concerns for the next 24 hours around the
Missouri Ozarks. Light winds tonight will become breezy easterly
by tomorrow morning and southeasterly by midday around 10 knots.
High and mid level clouds will increase but remain mostly VFR.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday FOR MOZ056>058-
     069>071-081>083-098.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Griffin





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