Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 132339
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
639 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015

...Update to Public and Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

An area of light rain has remained nearly stationary across far
southern Missouri through the late afternoon hours. This rain is
associated with a band of 700 mb frontogenesis. The rain has made
very little progress north due to dry air advection centered near
the 850 mb layer.

There are indications that this rain may slowly shift north across
southern Missouri throughout the evening...and especially by late
tonight. First off, short range models are indicating a northward
trend to that 700 mb front. Additionally, an approaching short
wave trough and upper level jet streak should result in an
increase in mid and upper level lift.

With this being said, we raised PoPs across many areas. The
biggest changes were generally made along and south of Highway 60
where confidence is highest in measurable rainfall tonight.
Overall, rainfall amounts will be very light. A few locations
across far south-central Missouri may manage a few tenths of an
inch or so. Otherwise, amounts will generally be below a tenth of
an inch...with amounts getting lighter the further north you go.
Areas up towards Lake of the Ozarks and Truman Lake may not even
see a drop of rainfall given the extent of low level dry air that
far north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

An upper level low pressure system is currently located over
northern Texas this afternoon and moving very slowly. Radar shows
light to occasionally moderate rain showers mainly south of
Highway 60 near the Arkansas state line. This is where the
majority of the showers will remain through the evening and
perhaps overnight. The rest of the area will remain mostly cloudy
and cool.

The upper level energy begins to lift northward on Tuesday. The
models have some differences on QPF for tomorrow. The GFS and NAM
has less rainfall for the area but the ECMWF and GEM have a little
more. Will go with a blend of the models for rain chances and QPF
with the highest chance for rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be over southeast Kansas and far southwestern
Missouri on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Rain chances increase
across area wide Tuesday night into Wednesday as the system
continues to slowly move northward. Instability will be lacking
and no severe weather is expected. But isolated general
thunderstorms will be possible. Rainfall will be light between a
tenth to a third of a inch of rain from Tuesday through Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

We will be in between systems on Thursday with a fair weather day.
The end of the week and weekend time is somewhat unsettled with an
unusual weather pattern. A large upper level low pressure system
will become somewhat cut off from the main flow across the
southern Rockies into the south central U.S. by Friday and
Saturday. Timing and exact evolution of this system is will in
question. The GFS has a strong and vertically stacked low pressure
system slowly moving eastward across the southern Plains while the
ECMWF is not as cut off and not as strong. It does appear Friday
through Sunday will be quite wet and unsettled for the Ozarks area.
If the GFS pans out...Saturday could be a very wet and windy day
around the area.

No severe weather is anticipated at this time due to the lack of
instability but widespread rainfall and some thunder can be
expected end of this week and weekend. We may have to watch trends
with the QPF and rainfall totals as we may see some moderate to
heavy rainfall possible. QPF for the weekend looks to average
about 1 to 3 inches possible. Overall temperatures will be
seasonably mild and comfortable this week with highs in the upper
60s to middle 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

A low level frontal boundary will bring very light rain shower
activity to southern Missouri through Tuesday. While it will not
rain the whole period, pilots can expected multiple showers to
impact the aerodromes over the next 24 hours. Ceilings are
expected to remain in the VFR category despite the showers. There
is a low probability that a heavier shower could bring a brief
bout of MVFR visibility to Branson. Winds will remain out of the
east to northeast through Tuesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






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