Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1240 PM CST THU MAR 05 2015


...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

This updated Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook is for the
Springfield Missouri Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) and includes the
following rivers across the Missouri Ozarks and southeast
Kansas...White...Osage...Marmaton...Sac...Gasconade...Big
Piney...Spring...Elk...Shoal...James...North Fork White...Eleven
Point and Jacks Fork.

The potential for river flooding will be near normal for the Spring
Season. This prediction is based on the current conditions of soil
moisture...stream and lake conditions...and expected precipitation
through the Spring.

Currently there is no river flooding occurring in the Springfield
HSA. There is snow on the ground. Liquid water content averaged
between one tenth and one quarter inch over southeast Kansas and
west central Missouri...and between one and two inches along and
south of Interstate 44.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS ...

Soil moisture conditions are currently near to below normal across
the Springfield HSA due to below normal precipitation since early
December.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor...there is no drought across
the Springfield HSA. However...abnormally dry (D0)conditions were observed
across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.

...STREAM FLOW AND LAKE CONDITIONS...

Stream flows were much below normal and ranked in the 10th to 24th
percentile of normal flows over the Spring River Basin and the Sac
River Basin. Near normal stream flows were observed over the rest of
the larger river basins across the Springfield HSA.

                                    LONG TERM     CURRENT
                                    MEAN(CFS)      (CFS)

GASCONADE RIVER   - JEROME, MO        2100           820

Observed daily stream flow as a percent of mean are given below.

                                      2/18/15       3/4/15
JAMES RIVER       - GALENA MO           39%           88%

Lakes along and near the Osage River...including Lake of the
Ozarks...Stockton and Pomme de Terre were occupying between 80 and 90
percent of their multi-purpose pools. Truman Lake occupied 100
percent of its multi-purpose pool and 1 percent of its flood control
pool. Lakes along the White River Basin...including Beaver...Table
Rock...Bull Shoals and Norfork...were occupying 80 to 85 percent of
their multi-purpose pools...with 100 percent of their flood pools
available for storage of Spring rainfall.

The percent of available flood control storage is given below.

                               2/18   3/4
         BEAVER RES. AR        100%  100%
         TABLE ROCK RES. MO    100%  100%
         BULL SHOALS RES. AR   100%  100%
         NORFORK RES. AR       100%  100%

...STREAM FLOW OUTLOOK...

The potential for river flooding will be near normal this Spring for
all basins in the Springfield HSA. If flooding is observed...it is
expected to be minor...and due mainly to individual convective storm
events. Specific probabilities for flooding for the Spring for
select river forecast points will be included in the Long Range
Probabilistic Outlook Tables below.

...CLIMATE OUTLOOK...

The latest 8 to 14 Day Outlook from the NOAA Climate Prediction
Center indicates above normal temperatures and near normal
precipitation are expected. The 1-Month Outlook for the rest of
March shows above normal chances for below normal temperatures and
equal chances of above...below and normal precipitation. The 3-Month
Outlook for the period March through May shows equal chances of
above...below and normal temperatures and precipitation.

...SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...

Drought conditions are not expected to develop across the Missouri
Ozarks and southeast Kansas through this Spring.

...PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK TABLES...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  3/7/2015 - 6/5/2015

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Little Osage River
Fulton              22.0   25.0   30.0 :  61   67   43   45   <5   <5
:Little Osage
Horton              41.0   45.0   50.0 :  76   77   34   36   <5   <5
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott          38.0   42.0   43.0 :  34   35    9    9    6    7
Nevada              20.0   26.0   31.0 :  67   73   26   34    7    7
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen          21.0   26.0   30.0 :   8   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Big Piney
Ft. Wood - East G    8.0   15.0   23.0 :  54   63   21   15   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Jerome              15.0   25.0   30.0 :  26   41   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Spring River
Carthage            10.0   14.0   20.0 :  24   27    9   <5   <5   <5
Waco                19.0   30.0   33.0 :  25   30   <5   <5   <5   <5
Baxter Springs      14.0   22.0   30.0 :  21   24   10   11   <5   <5
:Shoal Creek
Joplin              14.0   15.0   16.0 :   6    8    5    7    5    5
:Elk River
Tiff City           15.0   20.0   25.0 :  27   30   10   11   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 3/7/2015 - 6/5/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton                6.6    7.8   15.2   23.8   27.5   28.7   29.2
:Little Osage
Horton               34.0   36.5   41.7   43.4   45.8   47.3   48.3
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott           17.0   18.8   29.5   36.2   39.0   41.6   43.8
Nevada                9.2   11.2   18.2   23.4   26.3   30.1   32.4
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen            4.3    4.8    6.2    8.9   16.2   19.4   22.6
:Big Piney
Ft. Wood - East G     4.0    4.5    5.8    9.8   14.0   17.7   19.0
:Gasconade River
Jerome                4.5    5.5    7.7   10.1   15.4   19.5   21.8
:Spring River
Carthage              3.8    4.1    4.9    6.2    9.9   13.6   16.3
Waco                  5.0    6.0    8.2   10.3   19.1   24.5   26.4
Baxter Springs        5.1    5.4    6.4    8.4   11.7   22.1   26.1
:Shoal Creek
Joplin                2.7    3.4    4.3    5.7    7.3    9.5   16.2
:Elk River
Tiff City             5.6    6.5    8.0   11.1   15.5   20.0   22.8

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Non-exceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 3/7/2015 - 6/5/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton                3.7    3.6    3.6    3.5    3.4    3.2    3.1
:Little Osage
Horton               26.4   26.1   26.0   25.8   25.7   25.6   25.5
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott            8.0    7.8    7.5    7.4    7.3    7.1    7.0
Nevada                2.8    2.6    2.4    2.3    2.2    2.1    2.1
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen            2.3    2.3    2.3    2.1    1.9    1.6    1.4
:Big Piney
Ft. Wood - East G     1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.5    1.3    1.3
:Gasconade River
Jerome                2.6    2.6    2.6    2.3    2.1    1.9    1.7

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/sgf for more weather and water
information.

This will be the last Spring Flood Outlook issued for 2015. The
next Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook will be issued during the last
week of March.

$$

Terry








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