Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FNUS73 KSGF 141337
FWSSGF

SPOT FORECAST FOR FORT SCOTT ABC...USFWS/NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
837 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1230 CDT ON APRIL 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY TODAY THEN BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62 AT IGNITION...MAX 63.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 37 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS EAST AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    EAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.
WIND SHIFT..........NONE.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...MAXIMUM 1500 FT AGL
                    INCREASING TO 3300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 23 TO 31 MPH DECREASING TO 18 TO 21 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............62     61     63
RH..............37     41     39
20 FT WIND......E 8    E 5    E 4
20 FT WIND GUST.10            5
MIX HGT (FT)....1100   2300   3300
TRANSPORT WIND..E 21   E 18   E 20
CHC OF PCPN (%).30     20     20
HAINES INDEX....5      4      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 75 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING...THEN
                    BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN THE MORNING.
WIND SHIFT..........NONE.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....50 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....N/A.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............61     58     54     52     51     50
RH..............42     49     57     63     69     74
20 FT WIND......E 2    NE 3   NE 5   NE 5   NE 4   NE 3
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      10     10     5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....1700   500    600    500    500    500
TRANSPORT WIND..E 20   E 22   E 23   E 24   E 24   E 22
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     50     50     50     50     50
HAINES INDEX....2      2      3      3      3      3

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 63.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 63 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND SHIFT..........NONE.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO 9 TO 10
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............49     51     56     59     61     63
RH..............77     77     71     67     65     63
20 FT WIND......E 3    E 3    SE 3   E 3    E 3    SE 4
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....400    400    600    900    1900   2900
TRANSPORT WIND..E 20   E 17   SE 13  SE 10  SE 9   SE 9
CHC OF PCPN (%).50     30     30     30     30     30
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3      3

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 77 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
WIND SHIFT..........NONE.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 20 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC                       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............62     59     56     55     53     52     52     55     62     67     71     73
RH..............66     74     83     86     89     92     94     88     75     68     64     59
20 FT WIND......SE 5   SE 5   SE 5   SE 4   SE 3   SE 4   E 3    E 4    E 5    SE 6   SE 7   SE 6
20 FT WIND GUST.       10     10     5      5      5      5      5      10     15     15     10
MIX HGT (FT)....2600   1600   400    300    300    300    300    200    300    900    2300   4000
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 10  S 13   S 16   S 20   S 18   SE 14  SE 8   SE 7   SE 9   SE 13  SE 15  SE 16
CHC OF PCPN (%).30     20     20     20     10     10     10     30     30     30     30     30
HAINES INDEX....2      2      3      3      3      4      3      3      3      4      4      3

$$
FORECASTER...FOSTER
REQUESTED BY...DEON STEINLE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150414.FORTS.01/SGF






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