Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 270420
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1120 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Stratus has held on for much of the day across the area, but dry air
is rapidly advecting in from the northeast this afternoon with the
stratus steadily eroding as well. Expect most of the area to see at
least a bit of sunshine yet today, aside from perhaps the far
southwest counties of the CWA. While skies will be mostly clear in
the northeast half of the forecast area (perhaps more), steady east
winds and mixing should keep low temperatures above 38 for most of
the area and wind would also inhibit frost development. Will need to
monitor this evening closely though because winds approaching calm
(may be possible in valleys especially) could lead to patchy fog
development and even some frost in the north. Have not included in
the forecast at this time due to the expectation for 5-12 mph winds
through the night. High cirrus will gradually build into the area
from SW to NE late tonight into Monday associated with a slow moving
upper low passing well to the south. There is a bit of lift on the
northern fringe of this upper low, but lots of dry air to overcome
in the mid levels for any precip to reach the ground. Have kept the
vast majority of the area dry with only a slight chance for light
rain showers south of an Abilene to Burlington line where the
persistence of lift may be able to temporarily saturate enough to
have a bit of rain reach the surface. Better rain chances stay well
south of the forecast area though as highs climb into the lower to
middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Models have come into better consensus that Monday night will be
dry.  The closed, upper-level low will stay south of our area and
slowly move west before a secondary shortwave ejected from the
northern stream moves south over northeast KS Wednesday afternoon.
Any precipitation with this wave is unlikely due to lack of moisture
as indicated by BUFKIT soundings.  Temps are still warming up from
Tuesday to Wednesday with lack of cloud cover and diurnal heating
bringing highs into the lower 70s Wednesday afternoon.

For the extended period, upper level ridging extending from the
Desert Southwest/Four Corners region into the Great Lakes will be
the dominate feature in place affecting NE KS through Friday.  Then
the transition to a more zonal flow regime and degradation of the
upper and mid-level ridge will take place.  The best energy
dynamically speaking still resides off to the North, so the small
chances for isolated convective showers and thunderstorms will be
the only hope for moisture as we head into next weekend.  It does
appear that a modified cold frontal boundary could be just to the
north of the area late Friday into Saturday.  Both EC and GFS do
agree that this boundary will likely exist, but are spread on
moisture return.  Any activity does appear to be brief and elevated
in a nature.  But confidence in activity actually forming at this
time is not great.  GFS appears to be the more aggressive of the two
solutions with the elevated convection.  With that said, forecast
soundings do seem to be capped fairly well, so again confidence in
storms is low at this time.  Temperatures during this time rise into the
70s with low 80s still possible by the weekend.  Overnight lows
remain pleasant in the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR prevails at terminals with broken high clouds and light
northeasterly winds overnight. Gusts increase during the afternoon
as the main disturbance and associated showers remain well south
of sites.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Heller
AVIATION...Bowen






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