Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 261143
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
643 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ABLE TO LIFT BACK TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 00Z AND WITH LESSER CHANCES AFTER 03Z
OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BREEZY
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

BACK DOOR FRONT IS SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BECOMING NEAR STATIONARY DOWN OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING ALOFT...A VIGOROUS VORT MAX IS DIGGING
DOWN INTO WESTERN AZ ATTM...AIDED BY AN UPPER JET MAX IN THE
110-120KT RANGE DIVING DOWN ITS BACK SIDE. EVENTUALLY AS THIS
UPPER JET ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH...A BROAD
MID LEVEL CYCLONE WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TODAY...INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE BACK
DOOR FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL OK/TX...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY SPREADING
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. ELEVATED STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
DECREASE GOING INTO MONDAY AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT...BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE WEST OF OUR
AREA TODAY...BUT THIS ISSUE WILL NEED MONITORING AS THE RAINS FALL
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS.
OVERALL...FAIRLY QUIET FOR WHAT IS THE MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY
ACTIVE PERIOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS PART OF THE WORLD.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  52  62  47 /  10  80  70  50
FSM   76  53  63  49 /  10  50  50  70
MLC   82  55  61  48 /  10  80  70  70
BVO   69  51  61  47 /  10  50  50  40
FYV   71  49  60  45 /  10  40  30  50
BYV   65  47  61  46 /  10  20  20  30
MKO   78  53  61  48 /  10  80  70  60
MIO   67  49  63  46 /  10  20  30  30
F10   77  53  59  48 /  10  80  70  70
HHW   83  56  65  50 /  10  70  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





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