Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 170812
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  61  77  57 /  50  70  60  40
FSM   79  63  76  59 /  40  70  70  40
MLC   76  62  76  58 /  40  70  60  40
BVO   77  59  77  56 /  50  70  60  40
FYV   76  59  71  55 /  40  70  70  40
BYV   76  59  70  56 /  30  70  70  40
MKO   76  61  74  55 /  40  70  60  40
MIO   76  59  73  54 /  50  70  60  40
F10   76  62  76  57 /  50  70  60  40
HHW   79  63  75  59 /  40  70  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12




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