Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 010447
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1147 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED ISOLATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL OK WILL LIKELY MAKE A RUN
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER 07-08Z. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK INTO
NORTHWEST AR...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR THOSE TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING
NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR OKEMAH TO WEBBERS FALLS
AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR INTERSTATE 40. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS IS VERY LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FADE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. OUR FOCUS WILL THEN TURN
OUT TO OUR WEST WHERE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONGEAL TOGETHER AND SPREAD TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AFTER 6Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  82  65  82 /  30  20  20  50
FSM   59  78  61  81 /  50  40  20  30
MLC   63  80  67  81 /  60  30  20  30
BVO   51  82  62  79 /  20  20  20  60
FYV   50  74  60  75 /  10  30  20  30
BYV   52  74  60  76 /  10  30  20  30
MKO   58  77  63  78 /  60  30  20  40
MIO   55  79  64  75 /  10  30  20  50
F10   59  79  65  81 /  60  30  20  30
HHW   61  77  63  80 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18




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