Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 250449
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1149 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED STRATUS CEILINGS MAINLY SE OKLAHOMA WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...PRIMARY TAF SITE KFSM UNTIL 09Z. AFTER 09Z VFR
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. BRISK SOUTH WIND TURNING WEST
DURING MORNING HOURS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
HAVE COMPLETED AN EARLY UPDATE THIS EVENING TO SCALE BACK POPS
OVER MOST OF THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO
LOWERED MINIMUM FORECAST TEMPERATURES A TINY BIT IN THE SOUTH
WHERE LOTS OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY. WITH THE POTENT UPPER LOW
PASSING TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT... WILL STILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM ALMOST ANYWHERE
WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALL BEEN SENT OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDER SE OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS
AT SITES KMLC KFSM KFYV THROUGH 06Z. POTENTIAL IFR CEILINGS IN
SHOWERS/THUNDER AT SITE KFSM. ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY 10Z
WITH BRISK WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND BALANCE OF TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT HAS BEEN MUDDLED
BY THE ONGOING SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP NEAR A DRY LINE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO MAKE IT
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE TULSA FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN HAMPERED GREATLY TODAY BY THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE RAIN SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE AREA FROM SEEING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK. HOWEVER...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
LIMITS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT
WEST SKIRT THE AREA AND POSSIBLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE THE CONCERN. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY LIFTING
OUT OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA ACROSS KANSAS. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO END BY 12Z SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SATURDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  84  55  76 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   59  87  58  82 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   60  83  56  86 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   60  84  51  73 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   58  79  52  75 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   59  79  52  68 /  40  10  10  10
MKO   58  83  55  79 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   60  80  52  71 /  40  10  10  10
F10   59  83  56  80 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   61  85  56  86 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21




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