Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 061711
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1211 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA... AND WILL SEE A TREND OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN OK
IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 21Z. ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THIS
FORECAST. SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER
COVERAGE EXPECTED...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY AGAIN OVER EASTERN
OK EARLY THURSDAY AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT STORM COMPLEX HAS WEAKENED WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING CELLS
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER AND OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF NW
ARKANSAS...ALL OF WHICH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF
ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER IN TIME...BUT MOST AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSER TIED TO DRY LINE TO THE WEST.
POPS FOR THE FIRST PERIOD HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACCORDING TO RADAR
TRENDS...WILL GIVE TEMPS A CHANCE TO RECOVER WITH SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD LATER TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
ONGOING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. THEREAFTER ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EPXECTED TO BE MORE SCATTER DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON / EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY FROM LOW
VFR TO MVFR LEVELS WITH A TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
AFTERNOON FOR ALL LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THE CURRENT NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY A
60 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
TO THE EAST THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AS A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DIVES TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS
TO PULL NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE PLAINS PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY END MONDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 7 INCHES
OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14






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