Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 231147
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOULD CLEAR
KFSM BY 13Z-14Z. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS...AT KBVO AND KMLC
EARLY...THEN EXPECT MVFR CLOUDS TO SPREAD EAST FROM CENTRAL OK
INTO EASTERN OK. LOW CLOUDS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SPREAD TO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BUT WITH DRIER AIR OVER NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...EXPECT VFR CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. /SA



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY...SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS SE OK. AS A RESULT... RAIN WITH
SCATTERED THUNDER HAS DEVELOP THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
WEAKEN AFTER SUNRISE WHILE IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THE
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY...HOWEVER
PRECIP CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN LOW AS A LIMITED
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
STABLE...COOL SURFACE ENVIRONMENT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT AS FEATURES FROM THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM COME
MORE INTO FOCUS. A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET NOSES UP IN TO NE OK
TONIGHT...AND THIS AREA LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
LATE TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI. FURTHER BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST...STORMS ACROSS TEXAS WILL ALSO BE MOVING
E-NE...HOWEVER THE BULK OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. TURNING TO FRIDAY...THE MAIN
SYSTEM...SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARIES MOVE INTO THE PLAINS.
WHILE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA...IT STILL
APPEARS CONVECTION FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND WHAT REMAINS
ONGOING TO THE SOUTH MAY MAKE A LARGE IMPACT ON AIRMASS QUALITY
ACROSS ERN OK/NW AR REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE.
SFC LOW/TRIPLE POINT LIKELY TO TRACK ACROSS SRN KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH.
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LEAVE THE WEEKEND DRY.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM WITH A PREVAILING WEST WIND.

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE SOUTH LATE SUN...AND WILL OFFER RAIN CHANCES
INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM ON ITS HEALS MAY QUICKLY CLIP THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  56  78  59 /  20  50  40  20
FSM   65  54  73  63 /  40  50  70  50
MLC   66  60  77  62 /  40  50  60  20
BVO   63  53  77  57 /  20  50  40  20
FYV   61  51  70  59 /  30  50  60  50
BYV   58  49  68  59 /  20  60  70  50
MKO   65  55  76  60 /  20  50  50  20
MIO   61  51  73  58 /  20  60  50  30
F10   66  59  78  60 /  20  50  40  20
HHW   67  62  76  64 /  50  50  70  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02





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