Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 160220
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
920 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE GIVING BOTH A SIGNAL FOR FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST RUC
MODEL SHOWS A RAPIDLY DECREASING DEPTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WHILE GIVING A FAIRLY STRONG INDICATION OF FOG DEVELOPING. THE
HRRR CORROBORATES THIS WITH PROGGED LOW VISIBILITIES BEGINNING BY
ABOUT 6Z. FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING... WILL KEEP FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA... WHILE DECREASING OVERALL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MINOR GRID ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT BY ABOUT
9:30.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LOWER CLOUDS...WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS...WILL CONTINUE
TO SCATTERED OUT THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN AR
TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT RECENT WIDESPREAD RAIN /
CLOUDS IS LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT CLOSED LOW
IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER- MOUNTAIN WEST.
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY WILL MARK THE DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MORNING FOG ON
THURSDAY LIFTING AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80.

CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH STORM
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ALONG REMNANT SFC BOUNDARIES
AND/OR THE HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE AND SPREADING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE WORKED INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES WILL BE
NEARER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ALLOW ANY AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS TO BE CLOSER TO THEIR STRONGER STAGES AS THEY TRACK INTO
THE AREA. THE COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH NO SPECIFIC AREA OR TIMEFRAME
IS OVERLY FAVORED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE CROSSING
THE AREA WHILE THE SFC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06






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