Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 301039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 21 HOURS OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM S TO N AS YESTERDAYS FRONT RETURNS NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. THESE CIGS
MAY NOT REACH BVO PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL LEAVE RESTRICTIONS OUT FOR
NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY
ALLOWING PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS...WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WORKING NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY AS THE AREA IS GLANCED BY A WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST...HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS WEST
OF THE AREA NEARER THE DRYLINE. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA COAST TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONDITIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
OFFER A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER NO PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ONCE THE WEAK UPPER LOW PASSES ON WEDNESDAY THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES A
FAST NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS BOUNDARY THEN
LOOKS TO TEMPORARILY STALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS POINT WITH A
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE WAVE PASSES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE COOLER TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22





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