Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 181122
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR VSBYS...ALONG WITH VFR/ MVFR CIGS IN THUNDER WILL PREVAIL
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES...AND WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NW AR SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
...BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RA/TSRA BEGINS TO IMPACT THE ERN OK
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVENING...AND NW AR SITES
OVERNIGHT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...HOWEVER
MODEST INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/HEAVY RAINFALL. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING AND WITH A PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME EXPECTED...A FEW AREAS COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND
MID DAY...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOL/BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE DIVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES. STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23




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