Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 230247
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
947 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GIVEN CURRENT RADAR DROPPED ALL PRECIP BEFORE 06Z.
LEFT LATE NIGHT PRECIP AS SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL
TRYING TO GEN-UP AT LEAST  SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCE STILL FAR SOUTH. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT NORTH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SITES... AND IFR AT MLC. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY
OF I-40 WHILE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING STORM COMPLEX
WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NW TEXAS. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
BE NEAR THE RED RIVER AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND INTERACTS
WITH IT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
A LIMITED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREAT AS THE STORMS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN ELEVATED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ALSO FORM NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AND WILL THUS CARRY AT LEAST A CHANCE NORTH
OF I-40.

FOR THE MOST PART WE REMAIN IN THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY THURSDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT LIMITING ANY
PRECIP CHANCES. ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY TO FORM ACROSS TEXAS
THURSDAY EVENING WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTH ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN OK THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER AND MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASES THURSDAY
NIGHT ENOUGH FOR A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MAINLY SE OKLAHOMA
WITH LARGE HAIL AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT. SOME OF THIS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY
WITH DRY LINE MIXING FARTHER EAST...PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS I-35 BY
LATE FRI AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES CONSIDERABLY AS THE
LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA BUT QUESTIONS ABOUND AS TO QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN AS SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. MOST MODELS
BREAK OUT CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS FRIDAY
WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS OK/AR. POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...BUT THREAT REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL.

SYSTEM WILL SWEEP EAST BY SATURDAY WITH W-SW WINDS RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPS WITH DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO CUT
OFF AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING AT LEAST
SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  65  55  78 /  40  20  50  50
FSM   54  65  51  72 /  60  30  50  70
MLC   59  67  60  79 /  50  30  50  50
BVO   43  62  52  77 /  20  20  50  50
FYV   46  61  49  68 /  40  30  50  60
BYV   43  58  47  68 /  30  20  50  60
MKO   50  65  54  76 /  50  20  50  50
MIO   44  61  50  71 /  20  20  50  60
F10   52  67  58  79 /  50  30  50  50
HHW   61  67  61  79 /  60  40  50  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21





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