Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 051710
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR WITH LOW-END VFR
CEILINGS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AREA OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OK
THIS EVENING AND ACROSS AR SITES AFTER 06Z WITH CONDITIONS ACROSS
EASTERN OK TRENDING MORE TOWARDS MVFR...LIKELY REMAINING LOW-END
VFR ACROSS WESTERN AR WHERE PRECIP LIKELY TO BE LESS INTENSE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK THIS
MORNING AS SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES NORTH INTO THE AREA.
WILL ALSO KEEP AN EYE ON CLUSTER OF STORMS SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS
NORTHWEST TX ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE. SHORT RANGE
MODELS TEND TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EAST DESPITE WANING
SUPPORT FROM LOW LEVEL JET DURING THE DAY...TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN
SOME FROM RUN TO RUN AND STILL THINK THE BULK OF THIS WILL ARRIVE
IN EASTERN OK AFTER 00Z. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH BOTH THESE
STORMS AND ANY POP UP THAT MAY OCCUR IN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO THE EAST REMAIN LOW. UPDATED FORECAST ON THE WAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE PROVIDING LOW VFR CEILINGS. MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN OK THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PERIODIC
FLIGHT IMPACTS INTO MVFR LEVELS. THE CONVECTION WILL BE BOTH LESS
WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE ACROSS WESTERN AR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRAG AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE OVER AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHWEST UNITED STATES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID-WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO A STREAM OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE THAT WILL HELP BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS. THE CHANCES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.