Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 062346
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
646 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
AT ALL SITES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND PERSIST INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALMOST ANY TIME...BUT THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WEST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...
INCLUDING A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT. DRIER AIR-MASS FURTHER EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS WEST OF A BVO/MLC
LINE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AND ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN THE
COMING DAYS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AT SOME
POINT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS THE SWATH OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN REGARDING
MCS EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MORE SPECIFIC TIMING WILL
LIKELY HINGE MORE ON MESOSCALE CONDITIONS. WITH THAT SAID...IT
APPEARS BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE EVENING/
OVERNIGHT HOURS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER
LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BEFORE SYSTEM FINALLY
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3 TO 4 INCH RANGE ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

DRY/MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05




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