Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 271023
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
223 AM AKDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH 60 HOURS. LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUE. SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT TO IMPRESSIVE BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM FROM DELTA EAST.

THE GFS DOES SOMEHOW DEVELOP A COLD BALL AT 850 NEAR DEADHORSE ON
MON AFTERNOON BUT THE ECMWF AND THE NAM ARE VOID OF THIS. IN
REALITY IT WILL NOT AFFECT MUCH AT THE SURFACE BUT JUST A MYSTERY
OF WHERE THE COLD AIR MATERIALIZES FROM.

EXTENSIVE DENSE FOG ON THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND THE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MON. PARALLEL TO ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST AND THE WEST COAST FROM THE BERING STRAIT NORTHWARD
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FOG AND STRATUS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES HAVE INCREASED WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS HAS TAKE THE RH VALUES FROM THE
TEENS TO THE 20S AND 30S. THE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE
TEENS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CF APR 15


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