Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 280552
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
152 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY WITH CLOUDS STARTING TO
CLEAR LATE IN THE DAY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SYSTEM BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TODAY WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN REMAINING
NEAR NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE
THIS EVENING. LINGERING UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGHINESS WITHIN
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT
MAX WHICH BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING
IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS NEW
YORK. THE RISING HEIGHTS AND DEVELOPING CONVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BRING
SUBSIDENT FLOW BRINGING SHOWERS TO AN END BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON TUESDAY WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL
START TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL
HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 60S IN MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE
INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THESE TWO
FEATURES MERGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
FARTHER WEST WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LEAN
FOR SHOWERS TO ACTUALLY DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARMER WEATHER IS FOR SURE AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY TO MONDAY. THE POPS
ARE TOUGHER.

THE GFS HAS SOME QPF ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND LOWERED THEM
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
FRONT SEEMS WEAKER ON THE ECMWF SO FOR THE TIME BEING JUST WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO START THE TIME PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
EXITS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY LEAD TO A THIN LAYER OF IFR CIGS FOR THE
KJHW TERMINAL...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY BE VFR.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
OVER ALL 5 TAF SITES TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK... THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OUT
TO SEA OVERNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WIND WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY
MIDWEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL WILL TRACK UP THE ATLANTIC COAST OUT OF
THE GULF AND PULL THE WIND FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKES. IN
GENERAL...THE WIND WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH
WAVES GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS THE LAKES AND A FOOT OR LESS IN
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH



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