Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 050446
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1246 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
DOWN FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY POISED ALONG OUR
NORTHWESTERN BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ONGOING AT THIS HOUR. THEY SHOULD
ABATE A BIT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES BY, AND SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...STILL 68 DEGREES HERE IN CARIBOU. HOWEVER, UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S, WHERE THE FRONT
HAS PASSED THROUGH AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED. THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPS
WILL DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER NORTHERN MAINE. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, WINDS, AND TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE BIG ITEM HERE IS THE FIRE DANGER AND
THIS IS ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MANY SITES ACROSS THE
REGION W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE DOWNEAST COAST AS A SSW WIND KEPT
TEMPS DOWN. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL BACK
ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. SOME SHOWERS SHOWING UP ALONG &
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC BACK INTO ONTARIO. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT W/A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED W/IT. 12Z UA SHOWED DEEPEST
MOISTURE CONFINED FROM 700MBS AND ABOVE. THERE IS A NICE JET MAX
FROM 700-500MBS THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TO AID IN
SOME FORCING. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTHERN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY BUT AGAIN
THIS IS ELEVATED AND CONFINED TO THE WESTERN BORDER AROUND
MIDNIGHT OR SO. 700-500MBS LAPSE RATES OF 6.0-6.5 C/KM W/LIS
AROUND 0 AND PWS AT BEST AROUND 0.90". THEREFORE, INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE WESTERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BACK BUT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.

FOR TUESDAY, THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE COAST BY MIDDAY W/SHOWERS
EXITING THE COAST. CLEARING AND NW WINDS KICKING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THEY WERE TODAY BUT STILL
PLEASANT. TOTAL QPF FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE AT BEST AROUND 0.10"
AND THIS WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LONG CORRIDOR OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER EXTENDING FROM OUR
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA, WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY BRING A SPRINKLE TO SOME NORTHERN AREAS
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY AND
SEASONABLY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. WE WILL BE ALONG A BOUNDARY BETWEEN
COOLER DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND EAST, AND WARMER MORE HUMID AIR TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY WILL TURN OUT SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND
WARM ACROSS THE AREA AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BEGINS TO PRESS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TEMPERATURE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME A WARM FRONT
AND PUSH NORTH ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH JUST NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT WILL BEGIN TO
STALL AS IT PRESSES INTO THE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH, AND FORM A
TRIPLE POINT JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AS A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE LOW
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH A BIT UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY, WARM AND RELATIVELY HUMID.
THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH DOWN WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT. DRYING SHOULD FOLLOW ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS DOWNEAST ON SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS BECOME NW AFTER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH GUSTS EXPECTED 20-25KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
RIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NW WINDS ON TUESDAY COULD HIT GUSTS IN
THE LOWER 20S AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS
WILL BE LESS THAN 3 FT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH A WEAK GRADIENT AND HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE COASTAL AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, ONLY A
0.10" OR LESS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS AS THIS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND
TUESDAY WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH A GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND OF UP TO 30 MPH AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. FINE FUELS REMAIN
DRY DUE TO RECENT SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER, AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DRY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER. COLLABORATED W/THE MAINE FOREST SERVICE AND GYX ON THIS
POTENTIAL AND DECIDED TO GO W/A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY
MINUS THE COAST AS TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY THE LATER SHIFTS AS WHETHER OR
NOT THE COAST WILL NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/BLOOMER
FIRE WEATHER...



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