Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCTP 060204
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1004 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

RADAR SHOWS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS FROM
MY NORTHERN TIER DOWN TO JUST NORTH OF HARRISBURG. THE GENERAL
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY IS EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS
DRIFTING SE.

SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION CURRENTLY BACK THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE EAST BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS ABOUT THE NRN 2/3 OR SO OF MY
FCST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 06 AND 12Z.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS
LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL
BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE
MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8.

SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDS WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF
FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VFR MUCH OF THE TIME.


OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER/MARTIN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.