Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 060742
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN SHORT TERM AS FAR AS LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO JUST OFF SHORE THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY THIS EVENING.  ECMWF HAS HAD THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
KEEPING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST...BUT OVERALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH THE LACK
OF ANY DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA YESTERDAY...HAVE DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.
EXPECT FEW-SCT MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING WELL AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL...SO WILL STAY THE
COURSE AS FAR AS THAT IS CONCERNED.

ATWELL


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE COASTAL LOW SOLUTION.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE LOW JUST EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER...THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE
LOW WITH THE GFS BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO GA WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE LOW NEARS MYR. AFTER THE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHEAST...THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS. NO
WEATHER EXPECTED AT TAF SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  57  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
ATLANTA         82  60  83  62 /   0   0   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     80  52  79  56 /   5   0  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    82  55  83  57 /   0   0   5   0
COLUMBUS        83  59  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     81  58  81  60 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           83  56  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            84  55  84  57 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  83  54  83  58 /   0   0   5   0
VIDALIA         83  60  82  63 /   0   5  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL



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