Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 270320
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT. MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA DURING THE EVENING WITH A DISTINCT DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWER
COVERAGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
MOSTLY COME TO AN END AS THE RECENT STORM SYSTEM HEADS EASTWARD.
STILL, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

THE RECENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOWARD THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE. A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

MODELS SHOW A MORE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FROM FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AND THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF EMBEDDED WEATHER DISTURBANCES. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING BY 12Z. FOR MONDAY...SURFACE
WINDS NE AT 10-20 KTS WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER
FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND A WARMING
TREND ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANCE OF LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS APACHE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST MONDAY FROM 15 TO 25 MPH.
FURTHER WARMING WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE IN EASTERN ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER
APACHE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/MCS
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM/PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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