Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 042314
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
715 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

TAIL END OF VORTICITY CENTER THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO EXTENDS BACK INTO ILLINOIS. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NEAR THIS FEATURE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA.

THINK THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES. MODELS SUGGEST THE JET WON/T BE TOO
IMPRESSIVE...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL BE IN THE RIGHT SPOT FOR GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS
OVER THE NORTH FOR MAINLY LATE TONIGHT...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS
FARTHER SOUTH.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

MODEL DATA SUGGEST FRONTAL ZONE OFF TO THE NORTH MAY SAG INTO THE
NORTHERN OR CENTRAL ZONES BY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WASHING OUT BY
WEDNESDAY UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEAR THE
FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES.

SOME OF THE MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
APPEARS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY BE REACHED BOTH
DAYS...BUT LAPSE RATES TAIL OFF BY THEN AS MID LEVELS WARM. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NOW.

DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH THE GFS TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

WARM AND INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U S.

COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND STRONG UPPER LOW IN
THE FOUR CORNERS WILL MAINTAIN BROAD RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN AND EVOLVE INTO A
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST SYSTEM IS LOST AND THE WESTERN UPPER LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL ENABLE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SAG INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WARMEST DAY ON FRIDAY
UNDER THE RIDGE. AS CLOUDS AND CONVECTION INCREASE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...HIGHS WILL SLIDE BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION BY NEXT MONDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTION...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. THESE MAY TEMPORARILY
DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE MORE
STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH TO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AT
OR ABOVE 5 THOUSAND FEET. AT KBMG EXPECT MOSTLY SCATTERED CU AND
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THERE BECAUSE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 8 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS
TUESDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST UP TO 12 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME EAST OR
NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

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