Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 180822
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
422 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM...

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS. THERE ARE AREAS OF  LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING. AFTER AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN LATE SAT AM WHICH WILL INITIALLY HELP
SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND AND WARM FRONT
TO SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT GET GOING WILL WILL TEND TO FADE DURING THE
EVENING...BUT MAY LINGER ALONG THE FL EAST COAST AND SE GA DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW MERGERS AND WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AS A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO RACE NE
PUTTING THE AREA IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WITH ADDED LIFT FROM APPROACHING TROUGH...AND MODEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL USE LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS SE GA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS THEY WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING MAX HEATING. SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S BEFORE THE ONSET OF
SHOWERS/STORMS.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING AS A WEAK
WAVE PUSHES TO THE NE AND HEATING IS LOST. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE ITS APPROACH MONDAY. A MID LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINING WITH SMALL SCALE BOUNDARY
AND SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS LATE MONDAY MORNING/AFTN. THE FRONT WILL ENTER SE GA
MONDAY EVENING...CROSSING NE FL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SE GA
MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH RESIDUAL CHANCE POPS FOR NE
FL...DECREASING BY LATER TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME COOLER
AIR BEGINNING TO WORK INTO SE GA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE COLD FRONT WILL DECAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
BEFORE STALLING. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR MIDWEEK CLOSEST TO
THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
MIDWEEK. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SW FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING WITH
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE OCNL IFR
CONDITIONS TIL AROUND 14Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND
16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCTS AT GNV BEGINNING AT
18Z. HAVE VCSH AT REMAINING TERMINALS ALTHOUGH THESE MAY BE CHANGED
TO VCTS AT NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS RESULTS IN LIGHT
WINDS... BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  67  81  65 /  40  40  80  20
SSI  78  68  80  69 /  30  30  60  40
JAX  84  68  85  69 /  50  30  60  30
SGJ  81  69  82  69 /  40  30  60  30
GNV  84  67  85  67 /  50  20  60  20
OCF  86  68  86  68 /  30  20  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA


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