Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 270509
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1209 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE LOW IS
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. SFC HIGH
NOSING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND NRN
MISS RVR VALLEY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN STRATUS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND HELD TEMPS IN THE 40S. ENOUGH
LIFT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH /ACROSS THE PANHANDLE/ RESULTING IN
A FEW SHOWERS. DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH STARTING TO WORK INTO N
CENTRAL AND PRODUCING SOME CLEARING AND TEMPS HAVE BUMPED UP INTO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD STALL OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
AND SLOWLY ERODE THE LOW STRATUS FROM EAST TO WEST. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION SO PATCHY FOG/LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE. TEMPS TRICKY AS THE DRY
AIR...DEW PTS IN THE 30S AND DECREASING CLOUDS...WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A SHORT RANGE
MODEL BLEND WHICH DROPS TEMPS INTO THE 30S...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN
ZONES ARE LIKELY TO HOLD IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT THEN SEE
A BRIEF DROP AS THE LOWER DEW PTS ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNRISE.

TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LINGER STRATUS ACROSS THE FAR
WEST AND HIGHS AROUND 60. MAY BE A LITTLE OPTIMIST WITH TEMPS...AS
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SEE A FEW BREAKS FOR THE AFTERNOON. IF THE
BREAKS DO NOT MATERIALIZE HIGHS MAY HOLD CLOSER TO 50. THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL SOME MORE SUN AND HIGHS IN THE 60S...MAYBE 70 AROUND
ONL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS MANITOBA WILL DROP DUE SOUTH AND SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS WRN AND SRN NEB. NO
OTHER RAIN IS EXPECTED.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND RIDGING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WILL DRAW PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT H700MB BEGIN TO TICK UPWARD WEDNESDAY TO NEAR 2C
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ARE CONDITIONAL AND ASSUME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTN WHICH
MIGHT NOT VERIFY IN ALL AREAS. THERE IS ABOUT 6 HOURS OF SPREAD IN
THE MODELS WITH  THE TIMING OF CLEARING LINE WHICH COULD DISRUPT THE
HEATING CYCLE IN SOME AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PROBLEMS ARISE WITH THE TIMING OF
COLD FRONTS THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WITH THE
FRONT THU/THU NIGHT ARE VERY SLIM. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH TIME FOR
MOISTURE RETURN. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE FCST
AREA THURSDAY. THE GFS IS STILL RECYCLING DRY PACIFIC AIR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH K INDICES BELOW 30C...THE GENERAL RULE FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. THE ECM IS SLOWER BUT ALSO SHOWS K INDICES LESS THAN
30C THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS THE MODEL FORECAST QPF IS DRY THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOLID
MOISTURE RETURN SHOWN IN THE GFS. THE ECM AND GFS ARE REALLY IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING ISOLD/SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE FCST AREA. BULK
SHEAR CALCULATIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO 500MB SUGGESTS VERY
MODEST SHEAR...20 TO 30 KT BUT CALCULATED TO 400MB THE SHEAR
INCREASES TO 40 TO 50 KT.

THUS WE WOULD POTENTIALLY EXPECT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST. WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE
MID...UPPER 40S...POSSIBLY LOWER 50S...CONDITIONS COULD EVEN
BECOME FAVORABLE AND WATCH WORTHY. WE ARE APPROACHING THE TIME OF
YEAR WHEN JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING IS SEVERE. WE ARE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REALM OF PEA SIZE HAIL TOWARD LARGER SIZES.

THERE IS WOBBLE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...THE FASTER GFS IS
COOLER THURSDAY AND WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THAN THE ECM. 70S IS
STILL THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS
SATURDAY SUPPORTS 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

STRATUS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
INTO THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. VFR CLOUD DECKS WITH CIGS AOA BKN035
WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE LIGHT VARIABLE OVER
NIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER






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