Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 070242
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
942 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ARE STILL ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOUISIANA, HOWEVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING POTENTIALLY A
FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS MOVING TO THE COAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING, THEREFORE THE FORECAST WAS MODIFIED FOR THIS, OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 07/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED AWAY FROM TAF
SITES AND WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MVFR CEILINGS FOR KBPT DUE TO STRATO-CU AROUND 2500
FEET...OTHERWISE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD AT VFR
LEVELS. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT REMAINING TAF SITES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER REPEAT ON
THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY
07/18Z.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND FROM THE COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY, RIDGING ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP
THE COVERAGE OF AIRMASS TYPE MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
SCATTERED.

SHORT TERM...FAVORED THE GFS OVER THE MORE ROBUST EURO ON TSTM
COVERAGE ON THURSDAY DUE TO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING. WENT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR ACADIANA TNITE DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND ONSHORE FLOW.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BEGINNING MONDAY AS A DEEP WESTERN
TROF AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL WITH A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BY TUESDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  83  70  87 /  20  30  10  30
LCH  70  83  72  86 /  10  30  10  20
LFT  69  85  70  86 /  20  30  10  20
BPT  71  85  73  85 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05



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