Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 181916
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
316 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DIURNAL PATTERN EVOLVING AS ANTICIPATED
WITH WCSB HAVING ALREADY REACHED THE MID-FLORIDA RIDGE FROM POLK
COUNTY SWD. BOUNDARY HAS GOTTEN EVEN FARTHER EWD TO THE NORTH...
FROM THE OCALA/FOREST/LAKE GEORGE REGION TO THE ATTRACTIONS AREA.
DIURNAL CONVECTION PRETTY SPORADIC...WITH COVERAGE 15-25 PCT ATTM.
THE ECSB HAS NOT DEVELOPED ANY FARTHER NORTH THEN COASTAL PBC...
AND MAY NOT MAKE IT WWD PAST THE BARRIER ISLANDS GIVEN THE SURFACE
FLOW IS ABOUT 250-260/10KT. LACK OF A BOUNDARY WOULD KEEP LATE
AFTERNOON COVERAGE DOWN A BIT EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. AS IT STANDS...GIVEN LOWER OVERALL COVERAGE...DON`T PLAN ON
GOING WITH A PRE-FIRST PERIOD. 20 INLAND/30 ALONG THE EAST COAST
WILL LIKELY SUFFICE. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AS SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT. ADDED PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG TO ALL COUNTIES.

SUN...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLC WITH A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GOMEX DURING THE DAY...AND THROUGH THE BIG
BEND/NRN THIRD OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. AS IT
DOES...A CYCLONICALLY CURVED H25 JET STREAK PUSHES INTO THE ERN GULF
PLACING THE PENINSULA IN FAVORABLE UPR DIVG PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE
WARM/HUMID SRLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A MORE BACKED SFC FLOW
WILL ALLOW BOTH COASTAL SEA BREEZES TO FORM AND STEADILY PUSH
INLAND...WITH THE GULF COAST BREEZE MAKING SLIGHTLY BETTER INLAND
PENETRATION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THE CTRL-ERN PENINSULA FOR SHRA/TS
WITH HIGHER COVERALL COVERAGE COMPARED TO TODAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS 60
NORTH/50 SOUTH - WORRIED THIS MIGHT BE A TAD HIGH GIVEN MOS HAS BEEN
HIGH-BALLING RAIN CHCS AS OF LATE. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES LOOK A
BIT MORE CONDUCIVE...GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCED ASCENT PATTERN.
MAXES IN THE U80S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 90 OVER THE CTRL-SOUTH
INTERIOR.

MON-TUE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DRAGGING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
SOUTHEAST U.S. MON AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS ANOTHER PASSING WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES RELATIVELY HIGH MON...UP TO
50-60 PERCENT. SOME DRIER AIR INITIALLY BUILDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS
AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE...BUT THIS BOUNDARY STALLS WITH
MOISTURE REBOUNDING INTO THE AFT TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. TEMPS REMAIN WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

WED-FRI...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED TRANSITIONS TO
THE NORTHWEST FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE
NATIONS MIDSECTION. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SC/GA RIDGING BACK
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACKS EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. EASTERLY FLOW WED BECOMES SOUTHERLY THU AS THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH KEEPS
MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT AGAIN. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO KEEP
SUFFICIENT  MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...HIT AND MISS SHRA/TS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
AERODROMES THROUGH 00Z. PREVAILING VFR THEREAFTER INITIALLY...WITH
AREAS MVFR MIST AND SOME SHALLOW PATCHES OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MIFG
07Z-12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE FLOW BACKS TO SRLY AT AROUND 8-12KT TONIGHT INTO
SUN WITH A 3-4FT SWELL...WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO DECAY. WINDS WILL
BACK TO SE ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRC.

MON-THU...WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA AS IT STALLS TUE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
MAY INCREASE UP TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE OF VOLUSIA COUNTY LATE MON
INTO MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FLOW THEN WEAKENS WITH N/NE WINDS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BECOMING ONSHORE INTO MIDWEEK AS FRONT WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST FOR FAST APPROACHING
STORMS IN THE AFT AND EVE MAINLY MON AND TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  87  68  84 /  30  60  30  50
MCO  70  89  69  85 /  20  60  20  50
MLB  71  88  69  85 /  30  50  30  60
VRB  70  88  70  86 /  30  50  30  60
LEE  71  87  70  84 /  20  60  20  50
SFB  71  87  70  84 /  20  60  30  50
ORL  71  88  70  85 /  20  60  20  50
FPR  70  88  69  87 /  30  50  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WEITLICH



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