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000 FXUS63 KSGF 231104 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 504 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG WITH PRECIP TIMING THIS EVENING AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN SOME. CURRENTLY...AREA STILL UNDER THE EFFECT OF SURFACE RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THE 00Z SGF SOUNDING...LOWER LAYERS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THOUGH SLOWLY STREAMING NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI THAT WILL NEED WATCHING THROUGH THE DAY. DO BELIEVE THOUGH...THAT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH NOT MUCH OF AN IMPACT. TWO SHORTWAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FIRST JUST APPROACHING EASTERN KANSAS AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. THE SECOND...AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEASTERN UTAH. FOR TODAY...A PLEASANT DAY ON TAP ONCE AGAIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. FIRST SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL DROP 850/925MB TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY. WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND PERIODS OF SUNSHINE...SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN TODAY. GFS COMING IN ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER ON PRECIP WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING...NOW SHOWING ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ECMWF EVEN SLOWER WITH LOW...BRINGING PRECIP INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI MORE TOWARDS TUESDAY 12Z. SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIP SHOULD HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AND HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES OVER MAV MOS FORECAST. INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS MEAGER WITH THIS FRONT...THOUGH UPPER JET STILL FAIRLY STRONG...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT. BULK OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH FAIRLY QUICK PROGRESSION OF LOW THROUGH THE AREA...THINKING IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE MAYBE A WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RAIN EXITING EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE LOW MAY GIVE US SOME DRIZZLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -6 TO -8C BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND STAYING WITH US THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID 20S EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. START TO SEE A WARM UP COMMENCING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH AND LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. BY SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND +8/+10C ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. CLAYCOMB && .AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z TAFS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS FIELD BEGINNING TO INCREASE AND BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS MORNING. HAVE CEILINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET MUCH OF THE DAY WITH CEILINGS DROPPING INTO IFR CATEGORY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE. LINDENBERG && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
