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000 FXUS63 KSGF 242334 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 534 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL DEAL WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THIS LOW PUSHED A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IS FILTERING IN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THE REAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES...AND HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S AS THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. A WARM UP WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO THE 60S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT BETWEEN EACH OTHER AND FROM RUN TO RUN WITH REGARDS TO A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS HAVE COME IN SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH SOME BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHERS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND WILL DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE QUESTIONS REMAIN HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH WILL IT DIG AND IF IT WILL CLOSE OFF OR NOT. IF IT CLOSES OFF IT MAY BE SLOWER IN NATURE. WITH THE INCONSISTENCY OF THE MODELS...AND THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING STILL IN QUESTION...HAVE TRIED NOT TO PIN POINT THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT POPS IN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES WOULD APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HOWEVER THAT MAY CHANGE WITH THE NEXT RUN OF MODELS. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AND WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM. WISE && .AVIATION... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA AND AN ASSOCIATED STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OZARKS WITH SKIES NOW CLEAR AT THE JOPLIN...SPRINGFIELD...AND BRANSON TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE NEAR 8 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANGLE && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
