000
FXUS63 KSGF 250845
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...OVERVIEW...
MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES LATER TODAY BEHIND A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. LONG RANGE FOCUS WILL BE WITH STORM SYSTEM
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

...CURRENTLY...
NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH MOVED THROUGH MISSOURI
YESTERDAY HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CHICAGOLAND/MILWAUKEE
AREAS. PARTS OF OUR NORTHEAST CWA UP BY ROLLA WERE STILL IN THE
BACK EDGE OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH WAS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S SO FAR TONIGHT...WHILE A CLEAR
SKY HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S SO FAR.

NEXT SHORTWAVE IS NOT FAR BEHIND AND HAS DROPPED QUICKLY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.

...SHORT TERM(THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NEXT SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
QUICKLY DROP INTO MISSOURI TODAY SWINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO
MID 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS LIKELY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. COLDER AIR MASS WILL
PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
WARMING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION...HOWEVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE MORE CLOUD COVER FROM
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

...LONG RANGE(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS
FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTTHWEST AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXISTED BETWEEN 00Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF BUT HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEW
ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK STORM SYSTEM. GFS HAS A STRONGER SURFACE SYSTEM
WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF ALSO SWINGS A
MORE OPEN SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z TUE WHILE GFS CLOSES
OFF UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KS/OK BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUING...HAVE NOT CHANGED EXTENDED
GRIDS MUCH...HOWEVER BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 25/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS ARE SKIRTING BY KSGF ATTM IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST...BUT THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND AWAY FROM THE REGION. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL VEER THE WINDS SOMEWHAT AND PRODUCE SOME MODERATE GUSTS AFTER
18Z. DSA


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$