Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 280041
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
741 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD AS
CLOUDS HEIGHTS VARY WIDELY ACROSS ALL SITES. THE GENERAL TREND
WILL BE FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG RETURNING OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION
MOVING INTO E TX BY AROUND 03Z AT TYR/GGG/LFK AND CLOSER TO THE
MIDNIGHT HOUR AT TXK/SHV. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK EWRD
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND AFFECT ELD/MLU BY AROUND 09Z.
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SHWRS/TSTMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF
THE TX PANHANDLE ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BRISK FROM THE E/NE
AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF N CENTRAL LA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE BACK OVER N
TX...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN UPPER LOW HAS
GENERATED CONVECTION...WHICH IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EWD. THIS
EWD MOVEMENT IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EVENTUALLY DRIVING THIS CONVECTION INTO OUR REGION
LATER THIS EVENING. FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/ADJACENT NW
LA...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER
FORCING AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL...BUT A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ISSUES. THESE AREAS GOT QUITE A BIT OF
RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEREFORE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL MOST LIKELY BE ENTIRELY RUNOFF.

THE UPPER LOW IS FCST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVHD...DRIVING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND EFFECTIVELY ENDING THUNDER FOR THE
REGION. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND KEEP
SHWRS IN MAINLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX UNTIL THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY MOVES E OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS TO OVERTAKE THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS NOT ABLE TO REACH OUT OF THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...HOWEVER...AS SKIES CLEAR AND SUNSHINE
ABOUNDS. ADDITIONALLY...AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE
NOSE INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S...WHICH WILL AID THE TEMP
RECOVERY. THIS WILL REMAIN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE
PD...WHICH WILL FINALLY SPELL SOME DRYING OUT FOR AREA SOILS. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  61  47  72 /  80  60  10  10
MLU  56  62  48  69 /  80  60  20  10
DEQ  51  58  42  72 /  80  60  10  10
TXK  52  58  46  71 /  80  60  10  10
ELD  52  57  45  70 /  80  60  20  10
TYR  54  60  48  71 /  80  40  10   0
GGG  55  60  47  71 /  80  40  10  10
LFK  60  66  49  73 /  80  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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