Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 040737
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
337 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME...WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DIGS INTO A POSITION FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE TO GUSTY EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES.

ON TUESDAY...A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE BAHAMAS WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...ALLOWING WINDS
TO SHIFT TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EXPECTED FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD...WITH
THE HIGHER CHANCES FARTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN EXTREMES OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S OVER THE NATURE COAST TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COASTLINE.

.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST AND FLORIDA EAST COAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A WAVE/AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF FLORIDA AND THEN DRIFT IT NORTH AND MEANDER IT NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A PROBLEM WITH A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS IN THE MODELS AND HAVE GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE PERIOD AND THEN NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH ON
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM LOWERING RAIN CHANCES 20
PERCENT OR LESS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE PERIOD NEAR NORMAL THEN BECOME A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
IS CAUSING EAST WINDS TO SURGE TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING TRIGGERING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO END BY AROUND 10AM. ANOTHER
EASTERLY SURGE TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDS BACK UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS
OVER THE GULF WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AROUND
MIDWEEK...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MAKE FURTHER
ADVISORIES UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRIGGER A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR PARTS OF INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND WILL NOT BE AS DRY
AS IT WAS THIS WEEKEND...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP TO
BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON IN HARDEE COUNTY
AND INLAND HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. THE
LOW HUMIDITY...IN COMBINATION WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 15 KNOTS
AND ERC VALUES RANGING FROM 29-34...WILL LEAD TO BRIEF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AT THESE LOCATIONS. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PREVENT
FURTHER HUMIDITY ISSUES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  66  85  69 /   0   0  20  20
FMY  86  65  85  67 /   0  10  50  30
GIF  83  64  85  66 /   0  10  30  20
SRQ  88  65  87  67 /   0  10  30  20
BKV  85  59  85  62 /   0   0  20  10
SPG  84  70  85  71 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR HARDEE-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
     INLAND SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS
     TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS
     FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE



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