Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 061554
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
954 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS
MORNING. HAVE UPDATED TO TWEAK POPS AND SKY COVER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY BASED UPON OBSERVATIONS AND MORNING MODEL RUNS. HAVE ALSO
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO WINDS TO BE MORE IN KEEPING WITH MORNING
OBSERVATIONS AND BORDER CHANGES BY NEIGHBORING OFFICES. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1050Z.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MT THRU 15Z. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN TOPS
WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES AS WELL. EXPECT PRECIP TO REDEVELOP AND
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MT AFTER 00Z THU. THE PRECIP COULD MOVE INTO THE BOZEMAN AREA
BY 12Z THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015/

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE PRESSURE IS RISING AND A COOLER
AIRMASS IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. TO THE WEST, AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWE3ST
TODAY. HOWEVER, THIS TROF WILL BEGIN TO SPLIT WITH STRONGER
PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO ALBERTA AND CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL LEAVE CENTRAL MONTANA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONLY WEAK
DYNAMICS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO AND ALONG
THE IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER. THIS AREA WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST THURSDAY
BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROF WILL CROSS ALBERTA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL BRING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE HILINE. MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT COOLER TEMPS WILL RESULT. A BIG
SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN PLACE BY THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER CLOSES OFF OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE
TROF WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND BE OVER THE ROCKIES BY LATE FRIDAY.
THE AIRMASS WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND LOWER. BY FRIDAY, TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS. ZELZER

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MT THRU THE PERIOD...AS A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...THE
AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR ABOVE 6500 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE KINGS HILL AND BIG SKY AREAS DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
NORTH CENTRAL MT UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY. AT THAT TIME...THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THUS POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL REMAIN
COOL THRU THE WEEKEND...THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  33  53  36 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  55  28  53  28 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  63  37  54  36 /  10  20  30  20
BZN  60  36  51  33 /  20  40  40  30
WEY  58  30  52  28 /  50  40  50  40
DLN  58  36  50  34 /  30  50  60  30
HVR  62  30  56  32 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  58  31  51  35 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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