Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 211024
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
325 AM MST TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AND
EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY. THEN DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE IT WAS CLEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED AN
UPPER LOW NEAR SAN DIEGO WITH A VORT MAX SW OF THE LOW WHILE FURTHER
N AN UPPER TROF WAS MOVING TOWARD THE PAC NW. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS THIS UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NEAR SRN CA WHILE GETTING
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM THE NORTH AS THE TAIL END OF THE PAC NW TROF
DROPS S INTO THE BASE OF THE SRN CA LOW. ONCE THIS HAPPENS LATE ON
WEDNESDAY THE ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO THE W AND N
OF TUCSON AT THIS TIME. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TODAY...NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT CLOUDS AT 9-13K FT
AGL MAINLY EAST OF KOLS...TO KTUS...TO KCGZ LINE. LIGHT SURFACE
WIND...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 21/17Z AND AGAIN AFT 22/03Z.
BETWEEN 21/17Z AND 22/03Z...SLY/SWLY SURFACE WIND AT 12-18 KTS...
WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS. WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO BETWEEN 22-28 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES
INLAND AND ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
4-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS AS IT APPROACHES AND
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE EACH DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THURSDAY EXPECTED TO HAVE THE STRONGEST
WINDS. SPOTTY AND BRIEF RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF
TUCSON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY. ALTHOUGH
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST ON THURSDAY...COOLER
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL LIMIT THE AREAL EXTENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. AGAIN...PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
BRIEF RED FLAG CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS
WIND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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