Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 042103
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

VALID 061200Z - 121200Z

QUASI-ZONAL/SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BEGINNING
EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SWD OUT
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO CALIFORNIA ON D3/WED...THEN SEWD
TOWARD THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AROUND D5/FRI. A BELT OF ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST FROM CA/AZ EWD TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS...THEN NEWD TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE D3/WED
THROUGH D6/SAT PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND AN ASSOCIATED DRYLINE WILL
OSCILLATE WEST-TO-EAST ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT PLAINS...WITH
LOCALIZED INFLUENCES BASED ON THE EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVES THAT CROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS...CONVECTION...AND DIURNAL FORCING. FARTHER
EAST...RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
CONUS...WHILE A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE GULF STREAM.

...D3/WED: SWRN NM...
MODELS INDICATE THAT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST AS
AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALL TO AROUND 12 PERCENT AND WSWLY SURFACE
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH DEVELOP. ANTECEDENT WETTING PRECIPITATION OVER
PARTS OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER...MAY TEMPER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
SOMEWHAT. GREENUP HAS OCCURRED IN SOME PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT THE
REGION CONTINUES IN A MODERATE DROUGHT AND FURTHER DRYING OF FUELS
SUGGEST AN ELEVATED THREAT AREA MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...D4/THU: SRN AND CNTRL NM...
AS A SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY ADVANCES TOWARD THE
AREA...A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR VERTICAL MIXING OF
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE...FOSTERING
DEVELOPMENT OF 15-25 MPH SURFACE WINDS. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT. A 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY AREA HAS BEEN
DELINEATED FOR THIS FORECAST...WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL AND RECEPTIVENESS OF FUELS PRECLUDING ISSUANCE OF HIGHER
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

...D5/FRI: ERN AZ AND MUCH OF NM...
BROAD SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ON D5/FRI IN THE
REGION AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SEWD INTO AZ.
WIND FIELDS...HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO A 60-KNOT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. STRONG SSWLY SURFACE
WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON RH ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE AREA. SOME
DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE MODELS REGARDING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY AREA. THIS MOISTENING COULD LIMIT THE
DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND MAY REDUCE THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT AT LEAST
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
40 PERCENT AREA...WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

...D6/SAT: PARTS OF NM AND WRN TX...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL JET CORE WILL
EMERGE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE
PRECISE LOCATION OF THIS JET STREAM AND ALSO SURFACE LOW/DRYLINE
POSITION DURING THE AFTERNOON. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ANTECEDENT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE AREA. GIVEN ENHANCED WLY
SURFACE FLOW AND LOW RH VALUES...AN ELEVATED THREAT OF FIRE WEATHER
WILL EXIST WHERE FUELS ARE RECEPTIVE AND ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION IS
AT A MINIMUM...MOST LIKELY ACROSS SCNTRL NM. A 40 PERCENT
PROBABILITY AREA WILL NOT BE DELINEATED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THESE AFOREMENTIONED DETAILS.

..COOK/GLEASON.. 05/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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