Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FNUS51 KBUF 171906
FWFBUF

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR WESTERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
306 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY...

A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
MPH FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH WILL ALSO DECREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BOTTOM OUT AROUND 25 PERCENT. WIND AND RH
WILL APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...HOWEVER MOST AREAS RECEIVED
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
LINGERING MOISTURE IN FINE FUELS. THE NORTH COUNTRY RECEIVED LESS
RAIN...BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS JUST LOST THEIR SNOWPACK...SO FINE FUELS ARE
LIKELY NOT DRY ENOUGH IN MANY AREAS.

NYZ001-002-010-011-180930-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
306 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

                              TONIGHT          SAT    SAT NIGHT          SUN
CLOUD COVER                    MCLEAR       MCLEAR        CLEAR       MCLEAR
PRECIP CHC (%)                      0            0            0            0
PRECIP TYPE                      NONE         NONE         NONE         NONE
MIN/MAX TEMP                       40           66           35           66
AM WIND (MPH)                                SW  9                      E 10
PM WIND (MPH)                   SW  7        NW 20        NW  7         E 14
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
PRECIP DURATION
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
MAX/MIN HUMIDITY (%)               96           26           71           28
HAINES INDEX                        4            4            5            4
LAL                                 1            1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)                70         6580           70         4460
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              W 11        NW 20        NW 17         E 18
VENT RATE (KT-FT)                 770       131600         1190        80280
DISPERSION INDEX                    1          132            1           80
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ012-019>021-085-180930-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
306 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

                              TONIGHT          SAT    SAT NIGHT          SUN
CLOUD COVER                    MCLEAR       MCLEAR        CLEAR       MCLEAR
PRECIP CHC (%)                      0            0            0            0
PRECIP TYPE                      NONE         NONE         NONE         NONE
MIN/MAX TEMP                       40           66           32           65
AM WIND (MPH)                                SW  8                      E 10
PM WIND (MPH)                    W  5        NW 20         N  8        SE 12
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
PRECIP DURATION
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
MAX/MIN HUMIDITY (%)               98           26           69           27
HAINES INDEX                        4            4            5            4
LAL                                 1            1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)                70         7870           70         4560
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              W 10        NW 19         N 17        SE 22
VENT RATE (KT-FT)                 700       149530         1190       100320
DISPERSION INDEX                    1          150            1          100
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-180930-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
306 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

                              TONIGHT          SAT    SAT NIGHT          SUN
CLOUD COVER                    MCLEAR       MCLEAR        CLEAR       MCLEAR
PRECIP CHC (%)                      0            0            0            0
PRECIP TYPE                      NONE         NONE         NONE         NONE
MIN/MAX TEMP                       41           67           34           65
AM WIND (MPH)                                SW  7                      E  7
PM WIND (MPH)                    W  5        NW 21        NW  8         E 10
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
PRECIP DURATION
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
MAX/MIN HUMIDITY (%)               94           25           75           27
HAINES INDEX                        4            4            5            4
LAL                                 1            1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)                70         8310           70         5100
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              W 11        NW 25        NW 21         E 16
VENT RATE (KT-FT)                 770       207750         1470        81600
DISPERSION INDEX                    1          208            1           82
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ006>008-180930-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
306 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

                              TONIGHT          SAT    SAT NIGHT          SUN
CLOUD COVER                    MCLEAR        PCLDY       MCLEAR       MCLEAR
PRECIP CHC (%)                      0            0            0            0
PRECIP TYPE                      NONE         NONE         NONE         NONE
MIN/MAX TEMP                       36           61           30           62
AM WIND (MPH)                                SW  5                     NE  6
PM WIND (MPH)                    W  5         W 22         N 12         E  5
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
PRECIP DURATION
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
MAX/MIN HUMIDITY (%)               99           28           80           26
HAINES INDEX                        4            4            4            4
LAL                                 1            1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)                70         9280           70         6230
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              W 11        NW 32        NW 30         E  9
VENT RATE (KT-FT)                 770       296960         2100        56070
DISPERSION INDEX                    1          297            2           56
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

WIND SUNDAY NIGHT...EAST AROUND 15 MPH.
WIND MONDAY...BREEZY. SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH.
WIND TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
WIND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.

$$

HITCHCOCK





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