Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 042236
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR ROCK RUN...DCNR MOSHANNON STATE FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
535 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1800 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
FROM TIOGA...LYCOMING AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SCHUYLKILL LEBANON AND LANCASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA AND THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...BUT AS LOW AS 18 TO 22 PERCENT
THROUGHOUT THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...WILL CREATE MARGINAL TO
DANGEROUS FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE GUSTING ABOVE 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. FINE FUEL MOISTURE IS
RUNNING FROM 8 TO 10 PERCENT FROM THE ENDLESS MOUNTAIN REGION OF
NORTHEAST PA TO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
LIKELY STATEWIDE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0200...THEN 9-15 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600-6700 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400-2000 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 22 MPH...BECOMING WEST 3 TO 12
                    MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............48  51  57  57  57  57  57  57  84  84  84  84
WEATHER COV.........                    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP................70  69  67  65  62  60  59  59  59  58  57  57
RH..................36  39  42  46  54  62  66  70  75  78  81  84
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......15  14  13  14  10  12  12  12  12  12  12  12
20 FT WIND GUST.....25  25  20  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......6.7 5.6 4.5 3.2 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....21  22  21  18  15  12  8   5   3   6   9   12
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   2   3   4   4   4   4
HAINES INDEX........5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 0700...THEN 1-8 STRIKES
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN NO TSTMS UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 1300...THEN 16-25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3700-5500 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    5100-6000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 2800-3800 FT AGL
                    LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............84  84  91  91  91  91  91  91  93  93  93  93
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC NUM NUM NUM NUM LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............SCH SCH                 SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
TEMP................57  57  58  59  61  63  65  67  69  69  67  66
RH..................85  86  86  81  77  73  69  65  62  62  64  67
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
20 FT WIND SPD......12  12  10  10  10  9   9   8   8   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.8 1.1 1.6 2.5 3.7 4.7 5.5 6.0 5.9 5.1 3.8 2.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  12  10  9   9   9   10  13  13  10  7   5
LAL.................3   2   1   1   1   1   2   4   5   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   3   3

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP
REQUESTED BY...LORI MCMAHON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.ROCKR.03/CTP


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