Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FNUS73 KDVN 171639
FWSDVN

SPOT FORECAST FOR BELLEVUE STATE PARK...IOWA DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1139 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1230 CDT ON APRIL 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WITH A FLAT ASPECT AND LOW WINDS TODAY...EXPECT THE FIRE TO DOMINATE THE
LOCAL WEATHER.  WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE TODAY AND LIGHT...HOWEVER EXPECT
THE BURN TO POSSIBLY CREATE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND.  WINDS MAY
FAVOR THE WEST...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS FROM
ALL DIRECTIONS DURING THE BURN.  ALSO...BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF THE TEMPERATURE CONTINUES TO SOAR
TODAY.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY BE 5 TO 10 PERCENT LOWER THAN FORECAST
IF THIS OCCURS.

A WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF I-380/HIGHWAY 218.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS INTO THE MIDWEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM.

THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX -GFDI- DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS OR ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND. PLEASE
MAKE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........77 AT IGNITION...MAX 78.
RH..................41 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 35 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....VARIABLE AROUND 6 MPH.
WIND SHIFT..........NONE FORECAST
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAXIMUM 8400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 2 TO 9 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............75     78     78     75
RH..............41     36     37     43
EYE LEVEL WIND..N 1    SW 2   W 4    W 4
EYE LVL WND GST.       5
MIX HGT (FT)....6600   8300   8400   7600
TRANSPORT WIND..W 8    W 9    W 8    W 8
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 53.
RH..................MAX 80 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT BECOMING
                    NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WIND SHIFT..........
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 2 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    1 TO 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 72.
RH..................MIN 35 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....EAST WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH.
WIND SHIFT..........
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO EAST 18 TO
                    25 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.

$$
FORECASTER...GIBBS
REQUESTED BY...KURT CORNILSEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150417.BELLE.01/DVN






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