Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FNUS72 KMHX 061218
FWSMHX

SPOT FORECAST FOR C-51...CAMP LEJEUNE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
818 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
BAHAMAS WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND LINGER JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH LATE
                    IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 14 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO 16 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)          9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............52  57  60  60  60  60  60  60  60
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................65  68  71  73  74  75  75  75  74
RH..................81  73  66  62  59  58  58  58  59
20 FT WIND DIR......NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......5   5   6   7   7   8   8   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.....        10  10  10  15  15  15  15
LVORI...............4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................13  26  39  47  56  63  63  61  58
HAINES INDEX........5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 16 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............60  60  60  60  60  60  61  63  64  66  69  70
WEATHER COV.........                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................73  71  69  67  66  65  65  64  63  63  62  62
RH..................62  63  68  73  78  81  81  84  87  90  93  93
20 FT WIND DIR......E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD......8   7   7   8   8   9   9   9   8   8   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10
LVORI...............1   2   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5
ADI.................50  18  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14
HAINES INDEX........5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 9 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20
                    MPH...INCREASING TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 16 TO 24 MPH...INCREASING TO 28 TO 29 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............74  83  87  88  90  91  92  94  95  95  94  94
WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP................62  62  63  66  69  71  72  73  74  74  74  74
RH..................97  97  93  87  78  73  71  68  69  69  69  69
20 FT WIND DIR......NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......8   9   10  11  11  12  12  14  14  14  12  12
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  15  15  20  20  25  25  25  20  20
LVORI...............5   5   5   4   3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................14  18  19  27  45  62  69  74  76  74  71  66
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
FORECASTER...GOODALL
REQUESTED BY...LARRY CHURCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150506.C51__.01/MHX


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