Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FNUS71 KRNK 031512
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR JACKSON RIVER...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1112 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1045 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HEATING TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR FINE FUELS TO
CONTINUE DRYING.

OPTIMISTIC FOR DECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE BURN. SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS
OBSERVED SUNDAY MORNING...RH VALUES WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER 8 AM DUE TO
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND STRONG HEATING...WITH RH AROUND 50 PERCENT AT
IGNITION TIME...AND FALLING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SCATTERED
CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN IN AND OUT CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. BELIEVE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL KEEP WETTING RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY...AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WHICH DOES DEVELOP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 PM.

&&

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 1 TO 8 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............33     20     19     18     16     12
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................73     67     61     58     55     54
RH..................28     39     50     62     74     77
20 FT WIND..........SW 2   S 2    SW 1   W 0    W 0    NW 0
20 FT WIND GUST.....5
MIX HGT (FT)........6800   4600   1700   300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 8   S 8    S 5    SW 1   NW 1   NW 3
CWR.................10     0      0      0      0      0

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 8400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 1 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 12
                    MPH LATE.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............9      5      4      17     38     45
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................51     56     63     69     73     75
RH..................86     71     54     45     38     36
20 FT WIND..........NW 0   NW 0   W 1    SW 2   SW 4   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....                     5      10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........400    800    4100   6200   7100   8000
TRANSPORT WIND......N 3    NW 1   W 5    SW 7   SW 8   SW 10
CWR.................0      0      0      0      0      10

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH...DECREASING TO 0 TO 1
                    MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............46     44     45     46     47     47
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................75     70     65     62     60     58
RH..................36     47     59     70     78     82
20 FT WIND..........SW 5   S 2    SW 2   W 1    NW 1   NW 1
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........7400   5400   2400   600    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 12  SW 9   SW 3   SW 0   NW 1   NW 0
CWR.................10     10     10     0      0      0

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 1 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO
                    12 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............47     47     49     52     55     60
WEATHER COV.........                            ISOLTD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............                                   SCTTRD
TEMP................56     60     66     71     75     76
RH..................89     76     61     52     47     46
20 FT WIND..........W 1    W 2    W 2    W 4    W 5    SW 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....       5      5      10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........500    900    3500   5500   7100   7500
TRANSPORT WIND......NW 1   NW 3   NW 9   W 9    W 6    W 7
CWR.................0      10     10     10     20     40

$$
FORECASTER...FILLO
REQUESTED BY...KURT THOMPSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.JACKS.01/RNK



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