Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 251604
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1103 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

                   VALID APRIL 25 THROUGH APRIL 30

...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE WGRFC
AREA THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The large complex of showers and thunderstorms that developed
yesterday across portions of North Texas, generated some minor
rises across the Trinity River system. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3
inches were reported across this area, with some isolated higher
amounts reported across the Red River area. Elsewhere, another
area of showers and thunderstorms developed early this morning
near the Del Rio area, and moved over the San Antonio and
Guadalupe River systems. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches,
with some isolated higher amounts of 4 inches were reported across
Bexar County. This activity generated some minor rises, however no
moderate or major flooding was reported or is expected. Currently,
this recent activity is moving across the upper Texas coast, and
should be completely out the area by this afternoon.

A brief end to the rainfall should last through tomorrow
afternoon, before the next storm system impacts our region.
By late tonight, another low pressure system which is currently
strengthening over the Western US, is forecast to move eastward
towards the WGRFC region. Showers and thunderstorms, will
initially develop over Colorado and New Mexico early
tomorrow and continue through early Monday, as the upper low
moves over the Four Corners area. Thereafter, precipitation is
expected to become more widespread across the Texas Panhandle
and North Texas by early Monday, and eventually spread across
East and Southeast Texas by late Monday. By Tuesday, precipitation
is expected to slowly come to an end, as the upper low continues
moving over Oklahoma and events weakens. Some wrap-around rainfall
is possible across northern Texas late Tuesday, but no additional
significant precipitation is expected after Tuesday morning.
Overall....precipitation that is forecast for tomorrow through
Tuesday, may cause some additional minor flooding and some
isolated moderate flooding across some of the WGRFC basins.
However, no widespread moderate or major flooding is expected.

Although recent rains have caused some minor flooding across
some of our major river basins, most rainfall has been beneficial.
North Texas lakes such as, Lake Lewisville and Lavon are
currently at or approaching conservation level. Lake Lewisville
has not reached conservation level in the last 3 years.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of the
southeast Texas coast. Lesser amounts are forecast for portions
of southern Colorado.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch
are forecast from the Texas Panhandle down to the Big Bend area.
Lesser amounts are forecast across southern Colorado and northern
New Mexico.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.50 inch
are forecast from the Texas Panhandle down to the southeast Texas
coast.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (35%), and about 9% has
extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, a little
over half of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought
(58%). Lake levels in the extreme drought areas of Texas are at or
near historical lows for this time of year. Recent precipitation
events have brought drought relief to parts of far west Texas, south
Texas and roughly the southeast third of the state. The rainfall
expected over the next five days over the WGRFC area could produce
some runoff over east central and northeast Texas where the heaviest
rainfall is forecast. No significant runoff is expected over the
remainder of the WGRFC area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Brazos Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Lake Limestone continues to release - the Navasota River at
Easterly is above flood stage.  The Navasota River at Normangee
should rise to near flood stage.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Minor flooding is occurring in the Brazos, Guadalupe, Neches,
Nueces, Sabine, Trinity, and San Bernard River basins. Additional
rainfall is expected across WGRFC however no significant flooding
is forecast in the next 5 days.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


$$





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