Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 040047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040047 COR
IAZ000-MNZ000-040130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NE IA...FAR SE MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 040047Z - 040130Z

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT STATE ABBREVIATION IN SUMMARY

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND/OR DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT CONTINUES SEWD INTO CNTRL IA AND SE MN. OCCASIONAL
SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED SEVERE
COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE MAKES WW ISSUANCE UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM LUM IN
W-CNTRL WI SWWD ACROSS SE MN AND N-CNTRL IA TO S OF OFK IN ERN NEB.
ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT IN SE MN AND N-CNTRL IA IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FARTHER TO
THE SW. ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS CHARACTERIZED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
50S...AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 DEG C PER KM /PER
MESOANALYSIS/. THESE CONDITIONS RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.
GIVEN THIS INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...TSTM
ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND/OR DEVELOP FROM CNTRL
IA NEWD INTO FAR SE MN. HOWEVER...REGIONAL VADS AND MESOANALYSIS
BOTH AGREE THAT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS LESS THAN 30 KT...SUGGESTING
ONLY TRANSIENT STORM ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS WILL LIKELY
BE UNDERCUT BY THE SURGING COLD FRONT. A TRANSITION TO A MOSTLY
ANA-FRONTAL SCENARIO SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE CONTINUE PUSH OF THE
COLD FRONT...DIURNAL COOLING...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
JET.

..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 05/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   41819587 42279551 43049396 43849249 43999162 43139140
            42559222 41489455 41819587



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