Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 252015

315 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

The upper level trough moved into northeast KS early this morning,
stalled and pivoted, and has since moved southeast into Missouri.
The circulation has been impressive to watch on radar as associated
lift, weak low level instability, and moisture allowed a persistent
area of showers to spin tightly around the center of the upper
system as it crossed the area. A few of these showers were lingering
in eastern KS on the west flank of the low. These will remain
shallow and transient through late afternoon, but will provide brief
periods of rain before weakening and moving out of the area by 5 PM
or so. It appears likely that a deck of low stratus clouds will
build over the entire area overnight while northeast winds persist
around 10 mph or a bit stronger. The breeze and clouds will limit
fog potential and will keep temperatures a bit warmer in the mid 40s
for lows. Clouds will be slow to dissipate on Sunday, but should
eventually scatter out as the moisture in the cloud layer is not
particularly deep. Sunshine would allow temperatures to climb into
the lower to middle 60s, while the northeast to easterly breeze will
persist through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A closed upper-level low is centered over New Mexico and will
gradually work its way east over the period, while ridging in the
northern stream allows for elongated surface high pressure to the
northeast noses into the area. Depending on exactly where the
closed low tracks, could see some light rain in the very southwest
portion of our area Monday afternoon with a SW to NE gradient of
cloudy to clearer skies. From here, PoP chances should remain to
our south through Tuesday. Slight warm up is seen Monday into

For the extended period into Wednesday, still expect a dry pattern
to take hold with a strong upper level ridge beginning to build in over a
good portion of the Central CONUS.  With a southern stream of jet
energy well South and a northern stream well North, there won`t be
many significant chances for shortwave energy to create enough lift
to cause any precipitation.  The next best shot of showers or
thunderstorms appears to be late next weekend when both the EC and
GFS suggest a trough begins to dig into the Northern and Central
Rockies possibly ejecting a minor shortwave out ahead of it into the
Central Plains.  Moisture does appear to be limited with the timing
of this, however, so really not expecting any widespread activity at
this time over the outlook area.  Temperatures during this time rise
into the 70s with low 80s possible by the weekend.  Overnight lows
remain pleasant in the upper 40s and 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR cigs in place should persist through the afternoon at all
TAF sites with cigs mainly between 2k and 3k feet. Some potential
for brief periods of scattering, but a good chance for persistent
ceilings. Expect a decrease closer to 1200 feet around 00Z, and
further decrease into IFR ceiling heights by late evening with
some variation possible from the forecast 04Z-05Z time frame. IFR
cigs, and potential minor vis restrictions, will persist through
the end of the TAF, with a chance for 2-4 hours of LIFR cigs
around 12Z (although not included in the TAF at this time).




SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Heller
AVIATION...Barjenbruch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.