Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 272046
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A closed upper low was nearly stationary over north Texas this
afternoon, with a broad rain and cloud shield along its northern and
northeast flank across Oklahoma and into southern Kansas. Farther
north in the local area, a very dry airmass was in place, and the
lift and moisture associated with the storm system will remain south
of the forecast area as it slowly crosses the Plains. Cloud cover is
the primary question tonight as winds will become light from the
east. The presence of high clouds would keep low temperatures a few
degrees warmer while clear skies would suggest lows in the upper 30s
to lower 40s and some potential for valley fog. At this time, would
lean toward the slightly cooler temperatures as any clouds look to
be very thin and focused over southern Kansas. Do not believe it
will be cold enough for frost but valleys in the northern counties
would have at least some potential for a bit of morning frost.
Tuesday will be slightly warmer in the upper 60s to around 70 with a
north breeze and scattered high clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

Tomorrow night NW flow aloft becomes well established as a northern
shortwave dives southward into the Great Lakes region. This will
push a surface high pressure down from Canada across the center of
the country. Meanwhile a mid/upper ridge builds over the central
Rockies and eventually northern plains behind the Great Lakes low.
This will keep temperatures in check as the stronger advection
appears to stay well east of the area. This pattern will also keep
the region dry through at least Thursday when the high eventually
retreats eastward and return flow begins. High temperatures mid week
will generally be in the low to mid 70s, while low temperatures stay
in the mid 40s.

Return flow will continue into the weekend, but initially moisture
still looks to be on the low side for any significant precipitation
to develop.  Current guidance provides low confidence that some weak
shortwave energy may develop into late Saturday morning into the
early afternoon.  If this does occur and provides enough lift to
saturate any moisture in place, that would be the best bet for rain
and very isolated thunder to occur over most of northeast KS.  The
best chance for rain and thunderstorms will hold off until we get
the next weak frontal system to move into the forecast area and
stall out late Sunday into Monday time frame.  The best chance for
more wide spread precip will depend on placement of this boundary as
well as any potential associated mid-level shortwave energy that
seems to be likely with both EC and GFS solutions as a western
trough and possible cut-off low develop over the Southern California
and Desert Southwest region.  The overall trend with the EC is to
keep the boundary and associated QPF further North including most of
northeast KS, while the GFS suggests the main focus for precip will
be along and South of I-70.  Temps will be on the rise likely making
it into the lower 80s in some southern areas in northeast KS.  Lows
will likely be in the 50s possibly low 60s by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. With only thin
high clouds and light winds overnight, will need to monitor
potential for shallow fog given recent precipitation...but have
not included at this time given likely high clouds.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






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