Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 271116
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
616 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

Cirrus cloud shield spread over northeast Kansas as an upper level
low moved across New Mexico overnight. A broad area of high pressure
extended from Ontario south into Kansas at 08Z. High clouds will
continue over much of the area today and tonight as the upper low
moves from eastern New Mexico to central Oklahoma and north Texas
centered around the Red River by 12Z Tuesday. Forcing remains south
of east central Kansas through the period. Dry advection in the low
and mid levels will also mitigate any chance of precipitation in
east central Kansas through tonight. Mixing down from near 825mb
today will yield high temperatures in the lower to middle 60s with
the warmer temps across the north where more the cirrus clouds will
be thinner and allow more sunshine. Winds will also pick up again by
afternoon with gusts to around 25 mph from the northeast diminishing
later in the afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. Lows
tonight will cool back into the lower 40s, but may see a few
readings in the upper 30s north near the Nebraska border in north
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

High clouds should slowly subside Tuesday with slightly warming
temps. Most operational guidance has backed away from a weak upper
low diving south through eastern Kansas Wednesday as northern branch
energy interacts with the old Southern Plains low as it enters the
southeast states. At least a few SREF and GFS ensemble members
continue to hold on to this wave, though struggle to produce much
beyond trace QPF, with even trace amounts seeming to be on the high
end of precip potential in still dry low levels.

Precipitation chances increase somewhat the later one gets in the
forecast, but likely no significant chances until at least Friday
night. Northern branch zonal flow to the north brings about moderate
southerly flow in the lower levels, with a weak boundary sinking
south into the area. Have concern that the somewhat blocky flow in
eastern portions of the continent will keep the boundary and
moisture return retarded, with both of these features easily falling
into the "weak" category. Have kept Friday night dry and spread
small precip chances slowly south through the weekend, with amounts
and intensity of convection looking low. Temperatures remain on
track to steadily warm through the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the entire period.  BKN to SCT high
clouds will exist throughout the day and overnight. Gusty NE winds begin
late morning and continue until 00Z. Overnight, N/NE winds die
down generally below 5kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Heller





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