Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 280831
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
331 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

Early this morning a mid-level ridge was in place across the western
U.S. with water vapor imagery showing a closed-off mid-level low
continuing to spin over Oklahoma and northern Texas. The flow around
this mid-level low resulted in mid/high clouds continuing to stream
northward across much of the forecast area early this morning.
Satellite imagery showed a few breaks in the cloud cover near the
Nebraska border while locations in east central and southeast Kansas
remained blanketed by the cloud cover, resulting in low temperatures
ranging from near 40 north to the upper 40s south across the
forecast area. Models show this mid-level low slowing tracking eastward
today, advancing into Arkansas by late afternoon/early evening. With
the mid-level ridge advancing eastward toward the central U.S.
behind this exiting mid-level low, surface high pressure will also
slide into the region by tonight.  As a result, cloud cover will
begin to diminish across the region by this afternoon. Despite
northerly surface winds ahead of the approaching surface high, the
combination of clearing skies and lack of cold air advection should
aid in afternoon high temperatures reaching into the upper 60s to
low 70s. Despite northwesterly surface winds tonight, model
soundings show some scattered mid-level clouds developing overnight
into Wednesday morning, which should help keep low temperatures in
the mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

Northerly upper flow will start the day across eastern Kansas on
Wednesday while a ridge builds to the west from the southern Rockies
to the Northern Plains through the day. A shortwave trough will move
across southern Canada and the northern states on Thursday with the
ridge sliding further east across Kansas. Return flow sets up across
western Kansas in the afternoon hours Thursday and remains across
the west with weak low level jet across the west Thursday night. As
the upper trough moves across the Northern Plains Thursday night and
into Ontario and the western Great Lakes Friday it brings a frontal
boundary into northern Kansas. Moisture return is meager ahead of
the boundary with the gulf being cut off. That said have just a
small chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms along the boundary
on Friday. A more zonal flow develops through the weekend with
periodic lobes moving through the westerly flow aloft. Confidence is
low through Sunday for much in the way of convection due to timing
differences in the medium range models. Precipitation chances
increase on Monday into Monday night as an upper level trough moves
across the Northern and Central Plains and sweeps a cold front south
into Kansas Sunday night and slowly moves it through on Monday and
Monday night. There are some differences with placement of highest
QPF between the ECMWF and GFS, but both point to a wet period and
have for the past few runs. Temperatures through Saturday will see
highs int he 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Temps warm into the
lower 80s on Sunday before dropping back into the 70s again on
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR prevails with thicker high clouds lifting northward,
mitigating any restricted visibilties with shallow fog in the morning.
Light winds just below 10 kts from the northeast continue through
the period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen






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