Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 250855

355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Latest water vapor satellite loop at 08Z shows the upper low over
northeast Kansas. Regional radar loop shows precipitation
circulating around the low centered over the Washington and Marshall
county border. Rather broad swath of showers and thunderstorms
around the upper low. Expect a period of showers and thunderstorms
to persist in the deformation zone as the upper low slowly moves off
to the east through the day. Will maintain chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms this morning then across the northeast
through the afternoon hours. Short range high resolution models as
well as the ARW and NMM support the above thinking with
precipitation gradually ending from southwest to northeast through
the day. Expect skies to remain mostly cloudy through the day with
with winds becoming northerly with the passage of the surface low.
High pressure over the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region will keep winds from the east this evening and overnight.
Forecast soundings suggest that there may be a few breaks in the
overcast early this evening otherwise expect mostly cloudy to cloudy
skies through the night. Highs today will range from near 60 in the
far northeast to the lower 70s near central and southeast Kansas.
Lows tonight cool into the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Easterly flow over the lower few thousand feet Sunday deepens well
through the troposphere late Sunday into Monday as the upper trough
over the west coast cuts off from the stronger westerlies, staying
well south of the local area as it comes southeast. Rather moist low
levels to start Sunday, though persistent dry air advection from
deep ridging to the northeast should allow stratus to dissipate by
early Sunday afternoon. Will likely see fairly significant cirrus
for much of Sunday night through Monday night with southwest winds
remaining at this level, but still enough mixing for highs in the
low to mid 60s both Sunday and Monday, and keeping lows above
frost concern levels these nights. A weak northern branch wave
drops an even weaker front into the Central Plains around Tuesday
night with little if any change in sensible weather. The
dominating northern branch keeps shortwaves well north of the area
through the end of the week with modifying temps and no
appreciable precipitation chances.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

For the 06z TAFs, a line of thunderstorms will track across
KTOP/KFOE during the early overnight hours, with periods of showers
and isolated thunderstorms behind this line that will persist into
the morning hours. Observations show deteriorating cigs overnight
with borderline MVFR/IFR cigs expected with the lingering showers
through the morning. Some gusty winds can be expected with the
initial line of storms with gusts upwards of 25-30mph. Latest model
guidance suggests that once the precipitation exits to the east, the
region should still remain under an MVFR stratus deck through the
day with even lower MVFR cigs by Saturday evening. Winds will shift
to the west and northwest overnight and further toward the northeast
by Saturday night.




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