Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 260440
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1140 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

The upper level trough moved into northeast KS early this morning,
stalled and pivoted, and has since moved southeast into Missouri.
The circulation has been impressive to watch on radar as associated
lift, weak low level instability, and moisture allowed a persistent
area of showers to spin tightly around the center of the upper
system as it crossed the area. A few of these showers were lingering
in eastern KS on the west flank of the low. These will remain
shallow and transient through late afternoon, but will provide brief
periods of rain before weakening and moving out of the area by 5 PM
or so. It appears likely that a deck of low stratus clouds will
build over the entire area overnight while northeast winds persist
around 10 mph or a bit stronger. The breeze and clouds will limit
fog potential and will keep temperatures a bit warmer in the mid 40s
for lows. Clouds will be slow to dissipate on Sunday, but should
eventually scatter out as the moisture in the cloud layer is not
particularly deep. Sunshine would allow temperatures to climb into
the lower to middle 60s, while the northeast to easterly breeze will
persist through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A closed upper-level low is centered over New Mexico and will
gradually work its way east over the period, while ridging in the
northern stream allows for elongated surface high pressure to the
northeast noses into the area. Depending on exactly where the
closed low tracks, could see some light rain in the very southwest
portion of our area Monday afternoon with a SW to NE gradient of
cloudy to clearer skies. From here, PoP chances should remain to
our south through Tuesday. Slight warm up is seen Monday into
Tuesday.

For the extended period into Wednesday, still expect a dry pattern
to take hold with a strong upper level ridge beginning to build in over a
good portion of the Central CONUS.  With a southern stream of jet
energy well South and a northern stream well North, there won`t be
many significant chances for shortwave energy to create enough lift
to cause any precipitation.  The next best shot of showers or
thunderstorms appears to be late next weekend when both the EC and
GFS suggest a trough begins to dig into the Northern and Central
Rockies possibly ejecting a minor shortwave out ahead of it into the
Central Plains.  Moisture does appear to be limited with the timing
of this, however, so really not expecting any widespread activity at
this time over the outlook area.  Temperatures during this time rise
into the 70s with low 80s possible by the weekend.  Overnight lows
remain pleasant in the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

For the 06z TAFs, main concern is with the lower ceilings from the
stratus deck that will linger overnight through Sunday afternoon.
Low-end MVFR cigs remained in place this evening with model guidance
continuing to suggest cigs lowering to IFR conditions for much of the
overnight hours into Sunday morning.  However, based on current
observations, models seem to be too fast with these IFR conditions,
so confidence remains low with the start time for IFR cigs but have
pushed it back to around 07z. Guidance is in pretty good agreement
with cigs improving to MVFR conditions by late morning/early
afternoon before scattering out to low-end VFR conditions by late
afternoon and clearing out for Sunday evening. Winds through the
period will veer from north to east-northeast with some gusts around
20kts during the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Heller
AVIATION...Hennecke





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