Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 292046
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

It was a warm, spring afternoon across the region as upper level
ridge continues to build eastward over the plains, while minor mid level
perturbations were generating scattered to broken clouds across
parts of central Kansas. For tonight, sfc high pressure builds
south and east into the CWA, with light and variable winds and
clear skies. Forecast lows are expected to be pretty similar to
this morning in the lower to middle 40s.

On Thursday, much of eastern Kansas remains under the influence of
the high pressure while a lee trough develops over western Kansas.
Southerly warm advection warms h85 temps in central Kansas to 10C
where better mixing would warm highs to the middle and upper 70s.
For most of northeast Kansas, weaker mixing and weak warm air
advection results in lower 70s for highs. Easterly winds over
northeast Kansas should be near 10 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

Surface high pressure drifts off to the east Thursday night while
a low amplitude shortwave trough moves east-southeastward through
nearly zonal flow aloft into the northern Plains. This should only
produce increasing high clouds in north central KS Thursday night.
Lift on trailing edge of this trough could bring about some
areas of showers with isolated thunder on Friday.

Persistent warm advection seen in the 850 to 700 mb layer will
keep small chances of showers and thunderstorms around from Friday
night through Saturday night. However, much of the area will
likely remain dry. Sunday looks like the best chance for a dry day
coming up as forecast area is between weak shortwave troughs, and
elevated mixed layer could otherwise cap any development. Temps on
Sunday should also be the warmest of the coming week with 80 to 85
degree highs expected.

After that, west-southwestly flow aloft becomes southwesterly from
Monday into Tuesday. At the same time, the surface reflection of
this is a low pressure trough in the vicinty. Thus, for Monday
and Tuesday there will be chances for thunderstorms across the
area with the best chances north.

12Z GFS and ECMWF and GFSEnsemble are relatively consistent in
bringing out a large upper trough Tuesday night and Wednesday with
strengthening upper level wind fields and considerable lift.
Should this come out as forecast, Wednesday may have the best
chance for significant thunderstorms/precipitation.

Temps through the early to middle part of the work week will near
seasonal norms with highs mostly in the 70s and lows in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

VFR prevails at sites with occasional gusts to 18 kts in the
afternoon while prevailing north winds are around 10 kts through 00Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Bowen





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